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You are at:Home » Animal Spirits: Is the Housing Correction Over?
Wealth Building

Animal Spirits: Is the Housing Correction Over?

adminBy adminJuly 5, 2023No Comments3 Mins Read
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Posted July 5, 2023 by sean

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by Future Proof:

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On today’s show, we discuss:

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Talk about emotional.

Through the 4th to last trading day of the first half, the Nasdaq is on pace for its 3rd best first half on record. Last year was the second worst at this point. pic.twitter.com/jh2HiMZnzG

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) June 28, 2023

Top 10 ETF inflows 1st half 2023…

VOO +$20.8bil
TLT +$12.1bil
JEPI +$10bil
QUAL +$9.9bil
VTI +$8.9bil
SPY +$8.7bil
BND +$8.6bil
AGG +$8.6bil
IEF +$6.2bil
SQQQ +$5.3bil

Top ETF outflow = ESGU -$7.1bil

Total ETF inflows = nearly $220bil (approx $120bil equity & $100bil FI)

— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) July 2, 2023

The Powell Fed has focused on three baskets of core inflation.

What happened to them in May

3-month annualized rates

Core goods: +3.2% (vs 2.1% in Apr)
Housing: +6.4% (vs 7.2%)
Core services ex-housing: +3.9% (vs 4.4%%)

Core PCE: +4.1% (vs. 4.2%)https://t.co/ifZqSq0lWn pic.twitter.com/xZiW7lYpwT

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) June 30, 2023

The “good old days” were much harder.

In 1865 the average British worker
worked 124,000 hours over their life (like the US & Japan). In 1980, only 69,000 hours, despite living longer. Since then, it dropped slower, by 6%.

We went from spending 50% of our lives working to 20%! pic.twitter.com/dhMq47Xbg1

— Ethan Mollick (@emollick) June 28, 2023

The best recession ever continues. 💪👀

May durable goods 1.7% vs -1.0%.

May new home sales 763K from 680K, versus 675K.

The Conference Board’s June consumer confidence index jumped to 109.7 from 102.5, versus 104.0.

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) June 27, 2023

The Airbnb collapse is real.

Revenues are down nearly 50% in cities like Phoenix and Austin.

Watch out for a wave of forced selling from Airbnb owners later this year in the areas hit hardest by the revenue collapse. pic.twitter.com/xjGkj7bFC5

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) June 27, 2023

A viral tweet about STR data! Lets get some facts straight… There is not a collapse in RevPAL happening. Is it down in 2023? YES. Is it down 40%? NO.

I’ve pulled the numbers from @airdna‘s dataset mirroring the analysis done by @nickgerli1. What do we find? The average… pic.twitter.com/HRjIXZk9p9

— Jamie Lane (@Jamie_Lane) June 28, 2023

“You cannot talk about late cycle dynamics with housing turning up and inventories likely to follow. There will be no recession in the next six months, and it is increasingly likely that we’re not seeing one in the next year either.” https://t.co/hWDXcoJXzT

— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) June 26, 2023

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Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, received compensation from the sponsor of this advertisement. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investing in speculative securities involves the risk of loss. Nothing on this website should be construed as, and may not be used in connection with, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or hold, an interest in any security or investment product.

 





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