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You are at:Home » Animal Spirits: Rates to the Hilt
Wealth Building

Animal Spirits: Rates to the Hilt

adminBy adminAugust 23, 2023No Comments3 Mins Read
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Posted August 23, 2023 by sean

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts:

YCharts Launches New Partnership with United Planners ...

Submit your email here to receive 20% off a YCharts subscription for new clients and here for YCharts Value vs. Growth Trends Report

On today’s show, we discuss:

Tropical Bros Shirts:

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Since 2/19/20 — the peak for the market before COVID hit — the 20+ Year Treasury ETF has posted a total return of -31.9% versus ARK Innovation’s $ARKK drop of 30.7%. pic.twitter.com/flFRsaJzn6

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) August 21, 2023

A look at all of Michael Burry’s recent predictions.

In 2005, Predicted the collapse of the subprime mortgage market
-> Housing market crashes in 2008, Global Financial Crisis.

On Dec 2015, he predicted that the stock market would crash within the next few months.
-> SPX +11%… pic.twitter.com/fpBj9V2Shq

— Adam Khoo (@adamkhootrader) August 15, 2023

It’s not every day you see a strategy go almost all the way to zero in less than two years. But this cannabis ETF–which is slated for liquidation–has nearly done it. It’s down ~90% since its Oct. 2021 inception. Leverage and weed stocks, bad combo. pic.twitter.com/h4KEuEUJzD

— Jeffrey Ptak (@syouth1) August 20, 2023

All of these are reasonable takes:
-inflation is still too high
-fast growth is compatible with cooling inflation due to supply chain improvement
-growth is still too fast to be consistent with 2% inflation
-over time the economy can’t handle 5%+ Fed Funds

— Conor Sen (@conorsen) August 18, 2023

Severe delinquency for auto loans is highest since at least 2006. Yet, the jobs market is strong.

So basically, no one has any idea what’s going on.

[via Wall Street Journal] pic.twitter.com/i0SvkjCrvB

— CarDealershipGuy (@GuyDealership) August 21, 2023

Closing my week pondering thoughts from an AI professor @Wharton who thinks productivity acceleration from AI will take 10-year bond yield up to 6%.

Is bond sentiment too bullish or bearish – @biancoresearch and @dailydirtnap been debating.

Talk about a 🔥take.

— Jeremy Schwartz (@JeremyDSchwartz) August 18, 2023

Excess leverage and real estate speculation?

Only 0.88% of home equity is being used in HELOCs currently

The lowest level since 1988!

It peaked at 6.57% pic.twitter.com/nFKLIx86tI

— TheHappyHawaiian (@ThHappyHawaiian) August 21, 2023

What a monthly mortgage payment would look like for a new home buyer in the US, based on the median existing home price and the average 30Y fixed-rate mortgage, assuming a 20% down payment: pic.twitter.com/GITXvCvI2f

— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) August 22, 2023

Macy’s is hard to take seriously.

Hikes shrink allowance after physical count… which raises a lot of questions.

Looking for -7% FY comps. Takes credit card delinquencies up.

*This* is what garbage retail accounting looks like. So much gibberish for a $4b mkt cap co. $M

— Jeff Macke (@JeffMacke) August 22, 2023

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