About two years ago I had done a telecast in which we had just done clinical mathematics of Pakistan’s fiscal situation and then taken it forward as a projection to when they would hit zero day Zero Day means when the company without foreign bailout would go bankrupt something psychologically
Damaging happened to Pakistan just a few days ago in a historic loss to the Afghan team in the Cricket World Cup thaty psychological defeat is reflecting across the board in a country that is fast heading into the situation of a failed State case in point today is Pakistan’s Flagship carrier Pia
Pakistan International Airlines many of discerning viewers would remember that the Pia and the pilots that were flying these aircraft the vast majority of them never graduated an authentic flight school which means that on Fake Pilot licenses and fzy degrees they were flying thousands of people every year
Until this was busted by the Europeans and as we speak in October 2023 most of Pakistan’s Pilots its flights still can’t operate in Europe and in the UK because of that Scandal over the course of the past 10 days the airline has had to cancel 300 flights almost its entire schedule
Leaving of course whoever was traveling by Pakistani airlines in the past few days stranded at airports and with no easy Alternatives the reason for this is a fuel crisis now there is no Global fuel crisis in fact with sanctions easing on Venezuela and other places increasing
Output oil has been stable and on a downward Trend but there’s a fuel CR pric in Pakistan because you need foreign exchange to purchase fuel contracts and that foreign exchange has disappeared there have been bailouts from the Chinese there have been bailouts from the Saudis there have been bailouts from the IMF those
Bailouts barely cover interest payments preventing Pakistan’s State its ex cheer from going into a global debt default which means economic Oblivion amid the economic crisis there’s High inflation and I don’t even need to mention what’s happening in kyber Pak tuna and a state of Civil War in various
Regions and in this context the political crisis is not resolved you still have a government in Pakistan which is not led by any of the main people who would have thought they would be in government Imran Khan is in and out of jail nawas Sharif has come back from a self-imposed
Exile so you’re seeing Oblivion and the Oblivion ladies and gentlemen to put into context is so bad that Bangladesh the former East Pakistan has now an economy a GDP much larger larger than Pakistan’s Bangladesh is 31 in the world I think Pakistan is 4142 in the World Behind
Iran by this time next year or maybe in 18 months India will be the world’s third largest GDP we’ll be north of or at least close to $5 trillion which means our GDP will be the size 20 times the size of Pakistan 20x the size of Pakistan now the question you have to
Ask yourselves is is the future bright is this a temporary blip or is and things are going to get better where is the light at the end of the tunnel if you’re an ordinary Pakistani the people who are the rich have already fled to UAE maau Hong Kong London the US
Is the semiconductor future going to be established in Pakistan is the AI Revolution going to happen in Pakistan what’s going to happen Quantum Computing space technology do you see any of these future Industries developing in Pakistan the answer is no so the future is grim let’s open up this conversation Dr
Sharat Ki joining us on the broadcast we have Rajan khna with us as as well goam mukarji is with us and wi Commander sakran joining us on the broadcast as well now Dr kohi economic crisis do happen they happen in the best of countries they happen in the worst of
Countries so let’s take the case in point today sir Pakistani International Airlines their Flagship carrier has cancelled almost its entire schedule because there is a fuel crisis now you and I well know sir there is no Global fuel shortage so what’s gone wrong well to answer you in one word uh Rish
It’s a failed country but to to elaborate on that 743 billion rupees of liabilities with Pakistan State oil you can’t expect them to keep supplying oil and you know when you were saying I was thinking of something they probably recruited cab drivers to fly aeroplanes you know and from whatever crew which is
There you know you know they haven’t been paid salaries regularly we keep hearing of delays in salaries being paid and very important thing rishab the maintenance of the aircrafts I I am fretting about people who are flying Pia of course minus this outage uh it was
Flying on and off and probably some of the aircrafts may still be flying but I worry about the safety of the passengers who are boarding Pia flights because the maintenance of the aircrafts also needs money there’s no money uh you know the hangers have to be equipped with with
Technicians with uh aeronautic engineers with the spare parts incident none of these three things are in order the aircraft just keep flying ignoring all the safety measur so I am more worried about uh you know the Pia aircrafts taking off from the ground and the passengers sitting there well a country
Which has been harboring terrorism a country whose focus is just to nurture terrorism I think can never progress you you said a very important Point rev you said that there have been cases of countries economically failing we saw Sri Lanka we’ve got so many cases across
The world but you know you know what is the difference here the difference is because here along with the economic crisis is focused on terrorism is focus on everything that is negative is focus on rampant corruption that is the difference between any other economic crisis in any other country and in
Pakistan I think that is the glaring and staring difference uh Risha for that matter and you know none of the economic parameters I mean coming from the world of Economics I can tell you take the per capita income take the tax collection take any economic parameter none of the
Economic parameters it is only because of China it’s only because of lobing with IMF it’s only because of partly Saudi Arabia to a certain extent turkey it is only because of these fair weather friends they although they are not fair weather anymore that Pakistan today is a country we are mentioning you mentioned
About space you mentioned about Quantum Computing you mentioned about artificial intelligence forget about this rishab I think if it was not for the bailouts over a dozen bailouts given by IMF Pakistan would not have existed as a country R up today we would not have been discussing this in the name of
Pakistan we would probably have been discussing in the name of some fragmented portions of baluchistan or Sy Province or Punjab or whatever it would have been disintegrated long long ago so it is it is on a ventilator how long can a patient survive on a ventilator is
Anybody’s gas so okay okay so that so that’s the question uh so let’s put the facts Dr kohy uh Pakistan has Forex reserves currently of just over 8 billion to put into context India has Forex reserves of just under $600 billion it has $126 billion of foreign
Debt on its books 30 billion of which is owed directly to the Chinese Pakistan public Enterprises owe probably another $30 billion to the Chinese so you have a near debt book of $200 billion you have $8 billion uh in your in your bank account what do you do well
Uh rishab I agree that the Forex Reserve is only $8 billion and Pakistan does not make most of the things its aam needs so it has to import but the the problem here is that soon as the coffers start running dry when it reaches close to
Under 5 billion some of the other fair weather friend comes to the rescue and I have this over the last 3 to four years n number of times either it’s IMF or it’s Saudi Arabia or it’s China or it’s turkey or some other you know some of
The other friend with a vested interest now you should be this is this is this is this requires to be mentioned very very strongly they have got their own wested interest because of the Strategic geographic location of Pakistan or probably somewhere America so so you
Know no so let’s call it speed it’s got nothing to do with uh the Strategic geographic location anymore primarily in the past it had to be because Pakistan was seen as the country with the Islamic bomb okay uh the Strategic economic interest or geostrategic interest for the Americans has disappeared with their
Exit from Afghanistan the Saudis have to are building an association with India I want I want you to think about uh the IPL the World Cup who is the principal sponsor Saudi or ramco why does an oil company one of the world’s largest required to do PR because they’re not a consumer
Facing company so why would they want everybody in India to know the name aramco the reason for that is is is strategic uh DP world is a sponsor okay Emirates Airline is a sponsor so that shows where the world is heading the Emirates are heading in a different
Direction they are they are looking to build the India middle east Europe trade Corridor the Saudis are heading in a different direction so yes uh turkey Remains the Chinese remains but but they give you debt to pay debt so you are constantly on a on a treadmill let me
Quickly get Rajan Khana into this conversation Rajan G so the two things can happen either an economic Miracle can take place and and they discover oil on the on the shores of Karachi or they discover a gold mine all of these things they’ve claimed in the past I’m not
Making it up it’s I’m not pulling it out from my behind so they’ve claimed to have discovered oil they’ve claimed to have disc discovered discovered the world world’s largest gold mine all of these turned out to be fzy claims so either these things can happen or somebody can come and provide tens of
Billions of dollars of infusion into Pakistan both of which seem unlikely so what’s next see there are three dimensions attached to this present crisis of Pia two are on micro level and another one is on the macro level when we discuss this Pia problem per se then Pakistan
Internation Airlines is in do run for far for many years the total uh you know the liability is around $2.5 billion and the assets are not even pick of the entire you know liabilities the another thing is recently in the month of May the best friend of you know Pakistan
Malaysia Mah Muhammad he was very close buddy of Imran Khan so they They confiscated Pakistani international plane in kumur because there were lot of dues which they had to pay Pia another thing is recently then entire Europe has banned Pakistan intermission Airlines flights because the licenses as you told
Of all the most of the pilots they are fictitious so all these things that this p is going through another thing you know which is attacked with the fuel prices High fuel cost fuel prices you know this escalation has been ignited by IMF in Pakistan because one of the
Conditions IMF put recently that was to escalate the fuel price says and the main reason was IMF they wanted to ensure like all the other lenders if we are lending money to you your tability has to be ensured how will you pay it back unless you have proper tax
Collection within your boundaries of the your country you will not be able to pay our money back so they they had put that clause and now see how Pakistan has defied you know clandestinely IMF dictates they have allowed petroleum smuggling from across the Iran Border there is more petroleum
You know coming to Pakistani you know western parts of Punjab and Southern parts of Punjab s and bistan from Iran which which is which is basically openly which is openly being allowed by the Pakistani army left General who been core Commander there so now that is one dimension of the fuel another thing
Is one dimension is look today they might be having foreign reserves of around 8 billion but tomorrow they are going to ex because the interest what they have to pay back to IMF this year itself that will completely eat up Pakistani reserves as you know recently they had
Only $3 billion left in their foreign exchange and IMF gave them okay so but so yeah so again so you’re looking at an IMF bailout or as Dr kohi said either the Saudis come and the Saudis no longer give uh they don’t even give loans they give foreign exchange infusions which
Means they open a bank account with the with the State Bank of Pakistan and they’ll they’ll put in a billion dollars to earn interest there and that’s not even a loan they can withdraw that whenever they want it’s just it’s just emergency foreign exchange just to tide
Over cash flow it’s it’s it’s it’s becoming a joke so let me quickly get Gotham mukarji in goam goam mukarji as you well know sir the India is now manufacturing the iPhone 15 uh Pakistan’s lead exports principal exports remain and I’m quoting house linen knit wear cotton Woolen yarn rice
Unwoven men suits and leather now is this is this striking you as a future ready economy I think all of these things from what I read are also not operating because they don’t have electricity to run the factories and they don’t have fuel to run the vehicles uh it is a completely failed
Bandit State now uh as you pointed out they’re smuggling oil in they’re smuggling drugs in uh they’re doing anything and everything haala in order to Scrabble on after a fashion because uh all parameters of a viable economy have collapsed and uh because of the of the
Extent of the debt the sheer mountain of it um there is no Authority including the IMF and World Bank that can actually set this right they are just uh on some kind of U transfusion from time to time and it lets them stagger on for another
Two weeks uh and and that is the kind of situation something has to give it will give uh what shape it will take uh we will have to wait it to see okay and and when it gives what what happens because I frankly do not see a large scale
Bailout you’ll get something to tied over for another 3 months you’ll get something tied over another 3 months and that can go on for a few years few years but structural change doesn’t seem to be happening when Commander sudak so the question then begins is the Strategic interest as sharat Ki pointed out
Somebody then comes up with a check and bails them out now the Chinese have pumped in at least $60 billion uh as we speak you know in baluchistan in in Po Chinese Engineers are being attacked they’re being killed uh there is popular outrage against the Chinese Nationals within the country so
They’re in in a in a soup the Saudis uh have are are using an economic future with India as I’ve already mentioned the MREs are looking elsewhere so who’s going to bail out Pakistan I don’t see anybody bailing out Pakistan because Pakistan is a black
Hole a living black hole on the face of Earth anybody who goes nearby Pakistan even will get suck into it even if it is a massive economy like China China is in itself in in dold drums because it can’t effort to flirt with a black hole like Pakistan so that’s why they clearly
Taken their hands off their real estate can crumble anytime the kind of money that has been put in there you know what you know there were tanks that were actually guarding the banks there so that people couldn’t go and withdraw money there so China is off Saudi oil is
In its last days it’s counting the world is moving towards green energy it is moving towards a different form of uh Energy Solution which means that uh the money that the Saudis used to take from the oil wells is going to go down by the day and that’s why Muhammad bin Salman
Is now concentrating on building the tourist sector building Saudi as a new investment destination and giving them an open access to free Commerce so which means Saudi also cannot you know Bank upon the Jihadi bahabi jihadism that they were uh you know perpetrating to you know save the monarchy they now
Altered their course significantly that’s why you see temples coming up in Sai Arabia which was unheard of in the past so they have moderated themselves idiots in Pakistan will never learn the lesson there it is it is there is an imminent implosion that I see it is a
Matter of when because the moment money runs out then people are free to do anything they want that is why if you see RNA has been more successful in taking out all the extremist because if Pakistan didn’t want to you know hold them accountable in the court of law we
Can do that jobs with their own people and their people are up for sales today it is not the common man who is up for sales their government is up for sales and even the military is up for sales so I see an impending explosion of the
State it’s just a matter of months so let’s look at the last blow Dr kohi uh if you remember very recently which was in August because Pakistan celebrates its day uh independence day one day before ours and all these people had gathered in Dubai waiting for the Pakistani
Colors to come on the buj Khalifa and they never did and then you know they were outraged we’ve seen several ministers in the Middle East including in the Emirates uh say being very critical of the quality of Pakistani workers operating in the state accusing them of criminality and basically discouraging
Their entry into the UAE so the next core point is remittances because the Pakistani economy is crucially dependent upon them foreign exchange sharat g remittances into Pakistan globally have already fallen almost 12% this year from about $31 billion to about $27 billion and with the I just gave you the UAE example
Which is a which is a a principal uh port for the Pakistani diaspora it’s going to look worse so once this last straw hits the camels back what happens well uh you know the diaspora of of Pakistan you know they have their families out there and most of them are
Either into driving cabs or they are into construction business most of them I would say I mean I don’t mean any any disrespect to the to any profession but most of them are in Blue Collar jobs rishab so the remittances may add up to
A lot of amount but if you see the per capita remittance that is the per person remittance it’s a very very tiny amount and now you know they don’t want to earlier I I met a few pakistanis in Dubai you know a few months ago I spoke
To them and they told me that we used to send a lot of money earlier back home because some of it was being used by their family for for making uh the both the ends meet and some of the money was going into the bank accounts because of
The high interest rates that Pakistani has I was joking with a with a friend of mine that you can go and invest in Pakistan you’ll get over 20% on your one- year mty well God forbid what happens to the principal amount but at least you’ll get 20% so now the
Difference is rishab now they are not remitting back to the country because they feel that money Landing in Pakistan is not going to be safe in fact they are now working on a on a mechanism where they can bring their families as well so they want to get out of Pakistan I’m
Telling you the Common Man of Pakistan if given a chance they will immediately run away from the country because they do not see any future in the country and a very important case in point you know all these Fair brother friends which we spoke of we spoke of Saudi Arabia we
Spoke of China IMF through loving or whatever you know they all know risher that where the money is being used so if if a billion dollars is given do you think a billion dollar goes to the awam do you think it goes for the welfare of
The people do you think it goes for the purpose for which it has been intended to disperse no they all know that the money is not being siphoned off in the in the direction it is intended it is being siphoned off in corruption in undue buying of arms and Military which
No lending agency wants I’m surprised that where is because IMF has got an audit in place China where it disperses of course it’s got different interests Saudi Arabia has got a basic check I know Adia you know Saudi araban there is Adia stands for Abu Dhabi they
Have a proper investment check when they do same is with Saudi Arabia what surprises me rishab and I see I see some foul intention here that when they know that the money is not going to be put for the for the benefit of people for welfare of people they still keep
Dispersing what does this indicate it indicate that there is an agenda there is an propaganda which is in proxy being run by Pakistan or run from Pakistan okay for that country you know this is the point I wanted to make so let me pick up on that on that same thread and
Let me get winand sakran in win Commander sakran so I I pointed out remittances which is a major blow they are in Decline they’re not increasing exports are in Decline reput are decline so whatever your earnings on Foreign Exchange whatever toi earnings there were they are falling the next was Sir
That the Pakistani army and its veterans providing security and military services to the saies and other middle easn Powers uh this has been uh a long card that the pakistanis have had that uh you you pay us basically as as bailout money and in turn we’ll we’ll train your armies we’ll
Send fighting forces there was a Pakistani former Army Chief who was leading the Saudi fighting forces in Yemen now that Yemen campaign didn’t turn out very well win Commander zakaran it turned out to be in a humiliating defacto defeat so when it comes to the Reliance on Pakistan and its Armed
Forces by these Middle Eastern powers do you see that declining as well uh see it was never in place because it was more out of compulsion because of the lack of numbers and second is these guys were free Canon f for them because for them uh in fact
When Muhammad bin Salman came to the G20 Summit in Delhi he gave his wrote a check of 2 crores for all the employees of Taj where he stayed just as a freeb you know that’s the kind of money that they throw so for somebody who fights their War they don’t mind selling an
Extra two three crores which is a huge amount of money as far as Pakistan rupes is concerned so we need not see a great level of professionalism which is why these people are being hired these people are being hired because of their Brotherhood because of the fraternity the Islamic fraternity that they come
From and then they don’t trust anybody else outside the fraternity but having said that they know but if they had an iot a bit of professionalism inside them they would have done far better in the three Wars they fought with fought with India so they know what kind of planning
They can do how good they are professionally and what can they be banked upon coming to the fact that the remittances are dropping it is dropping because any money which gets converted into Pakistan toe is on a free fall so it is much better it is far more
Desirable to keep it in terms of US dollars or any other currency in Euro or in you know pound or or or anywhere else rather than bring it to Pakistan and allow the worth of money to go down that is one significant reason the second is
There is no value for money there and third is there is no assurance and Security even if you send money there there’s no guarantee that it will remain safe in your family’s hands so that is why most of these guys are saving it for better days because they don’t know when
This country is going to break up and they’re going to have to flee and and and and they’re already running those who can have already left and others are looking to leave uh so let me just finish this last Point here uh gam mukarji you’ll probably be aware sir
That I think it was five or six years ago that this former Pakistani army Chief General rahil Sharif was brought in by the Saudis and they said that they’re going to create a Muslim NATO and you know the primary uh uh aim was of course taking on the houis in Yemen
It was disaster after disaster these Pakistani volunteer Court unquote Personnel serving there were captured by a rebel organization in Yemen uh there was one incident when they all ran away because of a drone strike ran away because of because of of of a drone strike so the ability of the Pakistani
Army to say okay we are going to serve as a mercenary organization you pay us to bolster our economy in turn we will offer you security training fighting forces do you think this is this is credible in the future uh no but it has a long history
Either the the gulf armies take direct recruits from baluchistan which has gone on for over a century or of late uh in this uh last 50 60 years it is from the Pakistan State uh usually retired officers to officer the uh the cars and and uh regular
Troops uh who are seconded and uh and and and put to work the trouble with the gulf including Saudi Arabia UAE whoever is they do not have the numbers on their own to uh man their army except at the uh upper regions generals and Colonels
Upwards um so this this is a problem uh which they can’t get out of so easily and provide some kind of income and stability for the Pakistan all right so it’s not a closed chapter but given the performance uh which is not led to the desired results the Saudis have had to
End the conflict in Yemen because uh the pakistanis that they hire to get the job done couldn’t do it uh for whatever intents and purposes we let you to examine so I leave the last word quickly with Rajan khna Rajan G the last factor of course in all of this is China they
Have the Deep Pockets they’ve put in anywhere between 60 and 100 billion dollar they are still wanting to to push on with cek can the Chinese keep the Pakistani economy afloat and will the pakistanis be accepting that the Chinese now own us see China’s hands are already full
China has played game whatever they wanted to play and now this is the time when they have to just cut their stop from there most of the funds are blocked there second in Han also China China has been completely I think it was 56 billion for which have
Completely gone down the drain as far as CPAC is concerned the biggest Factor there is uh bistan bistan you know in the coming days it it we can’t just see that in isolation the entire geopolitics which is taking shape now like Ukraine war Pakistan you know they said their
Ad sciously and then now very openly they are you know supporting Hamas IMF on one part it is you know funded by the European country FF it is you know it has been created and being monitored by the European countries and the American enies and then you know combining this
The entire scenario of the geopolitics China I don’t think it’s okay so maybe not definitive but the but the importance levels the Strategic interest in bolstering Pakistan is declining it’s not increasing like I said for the Americans it’s of no consequence anymore they moved on with life for the Saudis
They’re looking towards India for the future the emiratis are looking towards India for the future so the only people still looking after Pakistan and China which is facing its very serious economic issues of its own the Turks who who have just come from a run on the L
So let’s be clear that the erdogan has economic problems of his own the question remains how long can this continue and the answer is em emblematic of the situation of Pakistani International Airlines the world’s worst Airline that’s the nomenclature it was it was given by International agencies 2
Years ago banned in Europe and UK for fake Pilots its planes seized in Malaysia now all its flights cancelled because they don’t have money to buy Fuel and there isn’t enough fuel to buy that’s the situation the question is who is going to be coming to save Pakistan this time
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