If you enjoy my work please consider supporting me on my patreon or on my buy me a coffee page the links to both websites are in the description of this video the famous 2015 novel submission by the French writer Michelle Welbeck describes a situation in which in order
To stop the national front from winning the 2022 presidential elections the mainstream political parties in France form an alliance with the newly formed Muslim Brotherhood party which then gets the presidential post for its candidate immediately he starts to enact large changes in French society that aim to
Islamize it the main character is the Aging sorbon University literature Professor who gets to choose whether he can leave his prestigious post or convert to Islam enticed by the vision of getting new young wives as many of his colleagues who convert to Islam do he eventually submits and imagines his
New life after accepting the offer I wanted to start with this description of the novel to set the tone for this video it is obviously fiction and we already know that the 2022 French presidential elections turned out differently arguably predicting the future was not the novel’s aim but the book and its
Success show that these themes are alive and well in the imagination of the French Nation when it comes to the topic of immigration ethnic change and the problems stemming from the integration of the immigrants and their descendants that have entered European country since the second world war one can argue that
No European country is so symptomatic of this process as France at least in the popular consciousness of the public in my memory the French riots in 2005 were the first occasion when these kind of issues somehow penetrated my information bubble and I became aware of them since
They were in Prime Time news on Czech TV stations I was a child then so I did not pay much attention to it since I had much better things to do like playing the Warcraft 3 campaign for the 10th time but I was aware of it a question
Might arise why did I not do a video on France earlier if it is so Central to the issues I am discussing in my videos there is a couple of reasons of mostly technical or pragmatic nature first and foremost I was dissuaded by the fact that France does not collect any data on
The race and ethnicity of its population it is explicitly banned by the French constitutional law which is effectively colorblind there is an important difference between how Continental Europe and the anglosphere collected their data on race and ethnicity in the UK as well as in other anglosphere countries there is extensive data on the
Ethnicity as well as rise of the population in any American British or Canadian city state or County you can find detailed maps and numbers on the racial and ethnic composition of their populations sure even these data are not able to give one a full picture since for example the Asian category used in
The US includes a very het orous group of peoples from Indians and Afghans to Chinese and Koreans but overall the data is very detailed in Continental Europe the national principle is applied you can usually find data on people’s descent based on their country of origin and often also pan-continental groupings
So you can find how many people of congales Chinese Venezuelan or Polish ancestry live in each country usually traced one or two generations back to their parents or grandparents now nationality and ethnicity are not synonymous but one can reasonably presume that most people of congales or Thai descent will be ethnically congales
Or Thai if the tracing goes only a generation back as in Germany many people who are for example third generation descendants of Turkish migrants can pass the statistics as ethnic Germans but at least you have something to work with but in France there is none of this there is a certain
Amount of data on foreign Nationals still no official data exists on the ethnicity of French citizens or of people born in France to foreigners if the foreigners were also born in France so the real ethnic composition of France is a question of estimations and qualified guesses now we will get back
To why France choose this path since it says a lot about the characteristic French approach towards immigration and integration nevertheless although the available data is not as precise or abundant as possible France is undeniably the second most important country in the European Union and one of Western Europe’s three most important
States historically France is one of the countries that has defined Western Civilization while we do not have the precise numbers it almost certainly has Europe’s highest population of non-european origin in absolute numbers and quite possibly even in proportional terms but France also stands out as the birthplace of many of the most prominent
Critics of mass immigration and the ongoing cultural change within the Western World the term great replacement was coined by the French thinker Renu kamu one of the most controversial novels regarding this topic the camp of the Saints was written in 19 1973 by the French writer Jean raspay I have already
Mentioned the novel submission by Michelle Welbeck one of the thinkers who influenced me the most and also writes extensively on these issues in France and elsewhere is a Frenchman Emmanuel tot on the political level the national rally which has a tough approach towards immigration and integration as one of
The Hallmarks of its political platform has been one of the most prominent examples of the so-called right-wing populism and Marine lean got 40% of the vote in the 2022 president presential elections France thus cannot be overlooked so let’s explore the demographics of the French Republic traditionally I will start with
Some anthropology by Emanuel tot Emmanuel tot is most famous for the theory that the traditional family types of pre-urban rural societies hugely influence the political preferences and behavior of different Societies in the Modern Age these preferences persist to this day even though almost everyone in developed countries lives in nuclear
Families since they massively influence the general cultural environment of different countries the basic argument says that people unconsciously form their General views on Life Society and politics by what they experience in their early life within their family Circle there are three basic AIS in play here the first is whether there is a
Strong paternal authority over children even in adulthood which predisposes societies to liberalism if there is not a strong Authority past childhood or to authoritarianism if there is one the second defining exis is the relationship of the siblings which can be either egalitarian or not that is most commonly
Expressed in matters of inheritance some family systems had fixed cultural rules on the equal inheritance of the siblings some left this matter entirely to the will of the individual parents and some practiced primogeniture so the model in which the oldest sibling inherits everything and the others get nothing
This exis determines society’s views on the equality of people in general the basic phis says that if you grew up in a family and culture that perceives siblings as equal you will tend to perceive men in general as equal even though they might be of different cultures ethnic groups or races but
Suppose you grew up in a family that saw its offsprings as an equal from the beginning since one of them is predestined to inherit the family wealth just because it was born first and the others will get nothing and have to find their own fortune in the world in that
Case you would be inclined to perceive inequality of different people nationalities or races as completely natural the third exis is whether there is a taboo on marriages between cousins or if these marriages are practiced or even preferred different combinations of these free traits equality Authority and cousin marriages create the main family
Systems in the world now I could go on about this forever since it is very complex and deeply fascinating to me but it would be out of the scope of this video there also already is an excellent video about this from the famous YouTube channel what if alist so I would be
Redoing something that was already done in a very competent way if this interests you watch the video or read the book explanation of ideology by tot you won’t regret it from now on I will limit myself to what’s relevant to France and especially the issues of immigration and demographics France is
Actually very diverse in its family systems since it contains several of them the most dominant one is the egalitarian nuclear family which encompasses about 45% of the French population and is prevalent in the Paris Basin region that has been by far the most influential in modern French
History since it is the first that has reached Mass literacy which is a prerequisite for Mass political movements the family model is based on the weak authority of the father over the children who move away to form a separate household after marriage and the siblings inherit equally so the
Famous slogan of the French Revolution Liberty equality fraternity perfectly encapsulates the etos of societies with this family system the nuclear family system with the weak authority of the father leans toward anti-authoritarianism liberalism and individualism in no country with the prevalence of nuclear family systems did any totalitarian dictatorship ever take
Power the equal inheritance of children also predisposes societies to a significantly negative stance toward economic inequality and does strive towards egalitarianism in the economic sphere that differentiates France from the absolute nuclear family World which is prevalent in the anglosphere while connected by liberalism and anti-authoritarianism they remain very
Distinct when it comes to the economic functioning when you look at the tax revenue as a share of the GDP social spending as a percentage of GDP or the Gen coefficient measuring income inequality France clearly stands apart from the anglosphere countries the widening gap between the wealth of the
Upper 20% and the lower 80% occurring in most of the developed world has not occurred in France France has been the ealon of an over-regulated overtaxed semi socialist European economy for many without passing judgment on whether that is a fair assessment this is the anthropological roote of the state of
Things the combination of liberal individualism and the aspiration toward equality is to a certain extent contradictory in a society where individual liberty is the highest virtue large levels of economic inequality are given since people are not equal in their god-given capabilities that makes countries with this family model like
France prone to instability and disorderliness stemming from this inherent contradiction there is a constant battle between the idea of Liberty and equality the French left in the 19th century was thus full of revolutionary ideas still as in other countries with a prevalence of this family type like Spain the left lacked
The discipline and authoritarianism needed to enct those ideas and often crumbled into different factions of anarchists or anarchos syndicalists but even more important for the matters of this video is the fact that the equal inheritance of children makes the notion of equality of human beings seem natural
Here it is very telling to compare with another family type prevalent in Europe the authoritarian family type and the issue of intermarriage the authoritarian family type is prevalent in German speaking Europe Sweden CA Belgium Ireland Scotland Catalonia The Basque Country Japan Korea and certain parts of France as mentioned this family type is
Characterized by the father’s authority over his oldest child most often the son who gets to inherit the whole family property the others nothing the inequality of siblings is thus the central element of this family type making inequality of different peoples seem natural and right since the family property is passed from generation to
Generation in Long unbroken Family Lines this family type is prone to being obsessed with its distinctness and differences from the other peoples which it aims to preserve and enhance that is why many nations with this family type successfully resist assimilation conversely nations with this family type are quite bad at assimilating subjected
Nations and have a tendency for separatism and fragmentation there are many examples of this catalonian and Basque separatism have persisted for centuries even though more people use Spanish as their primary language than Catalan or Basque Irish speak English but for centuries successfully resisted assimilation Scottish independence is still politically alive even though the
English language has been predominant for centuries the Flemish and valon in Belgium are still divided despite sharing the authoritarian family type Germany was for centuries regionally divided between many principalities and yoms even though it was ethnically homogeneous Germans were also unable to successfully assimilate the Slavic or Hungarian peoples in Central and Eastern
Europe even though they were completely dominant in terms of an educated Urban population Artisans merchants and often aristocracy however it is hard to assimilate populations that are deemed as inherently different or even inferior even though Japan is anthropologically and ethnically extremely homogeneous feudal fragmentation ravaged the country
For centuries there is an old Japanese proverb that the brother is the first Foreigner in contrast to that the family types perceiving brothers and people as equal are inherently assimilationists apart from the French egalitarian nuclear family this is mainly the communitarian and damus family the siblings are also equal but the system
Is separated from the French one by the strong authority of the father over the household where all his sons live with their wives apart from the inclination of the society with this family system towards communist dictatorships in modern history since communism is a bland of authoritarianism and equality
They are also prone to successful assimilation of ethnic minorities under its rule this family system was prevalent in the Roman Empire and is dominant in Russia or China all three Empires carried out vigorous assimilationist policies often declaring the subjected peoples as Russian Chinese or Roman whether they liked it or not
This process was often ruthless and did not ask the assimilated people were they identified with it but it is nevertheless more Universalist than the imperialism of the exclusionist authoritarian family type the example of the Roman Empire is especially striking in contrast with ancient Greece where the prevalent family type used
Primogeniture and Greece remained divided into many city states comparing German and Russian imperialism is very telling while the German ideal that later manifested in Nazism saw the indigenous people of Eastern Europe more as a nuisance that should ideally be removed so the German Uber MCH could properly develop the lands Russians were
And to a certain extent still are to this day for example in relation to Ukraine more like well you are all Russians anyway so why not be part of Russia Japanese imperialism in the first half of the 20th century exhibited many similar traits as the German one since
The Japanese also saw themselves as racially Superior to Chinese or Koreans when you are subjugated by an imperial power with an authoritarian family type that perceives itself as ethnically highly distinct and Superior you will likely end up being treated as a slave labor or possibly exterminated or expelled in contrast Imperial power with
The anthropological tradition of equality will assimilate you the level of brutality of this assimilation largely depends on the level of your resistance to this assimilation that does not mean that Russians or Chinese could not be genocidal they absolutely could but they will be genocidal because your ethnic identity is an obstacle to
Their Imperial project not specifically because of your ethnicity in line with this tradition France has also been historically fiercely assimilationist in relation to its historical minorities even though many of them might have been as distinct as Bas or catalans well precisely as distinct as Bas or catalans
Since they both also live in France France has been full of vital distinct historical cultures but they have been successfully assimilated within the mainstream French identity now why am I talking about this I promise it is relevant to the subject the assimilationist univers Universalist EOS of the French family type influences
Both the French assimilationist policies towards their new ethnic minorities created by immigration as well as the levels of intermarriage between ethnic French and minorities as was already noted in the introduction the French preferred model of integration of culturally Alli immigrants was and is based on the Assumption of assimilation
Wherever you came from Poland Italy mreb or subsaharan Africa you will become French in your beliefs views and behavior there is is a significant distinction from the multiculturalist model adopted in the anglophone countries or even many European countries which for a long time did not attempt to assimilate The Immigrant
Populations and pursued an ideal of cohabitation of different cultural groups next to each other with vake Civic nationalism connecting them all in the Multicultural model which assumes differences collecting data on different ethnicities their residential distribution or economic Success is Not problematic moreover these data are often used to create affirmative action
Policies aimed at helping these groups succeed because if some ethnic or racial group is unsuccessful the only reason has to be discrimination but in the assimilationist model of France where everybody is to be looked upon as French and no affirmative action was traditionally enacted there is no point
In highlighting the racial or ethnic differences within the population this line of thinking is one of the keys to understanding the French policy of color blindness as well as the Constitutional ban on the collection of race based data from 19 78 even though this policy was publicly justified by the memories of
The second world war vishy regime that made its Jewish citizens where the yellow star armbands but possibly the most significant influence of French universalism is the intermarriage rate in most of my videos on these subjects I often repeat that intermarriage rates between races or ethnicities are one of
The best markers of cultural Fusion in this regard the difference between France and the other European ethnically diverse countries with authoritarian family types is striking in my video on German demographics I discussed the rather unfavorable statistic on intermarriage rate of Germans of Turkish origin a study researching marriage
Patterns of immigrants to Germany from 1984 to 2002 shows that intermarriage rate between Turks and Germans was 6.7% for Turkish males and 1.84% for Turkish females another survey suggests that the intermarriage rate in Germany is 1% among Arabs and Iranians and around 20% % for North Africans and subsaharan
Africans in contrast surveys in France showed that in 2008 44% of male descendants of immigrants of Algerian and Moroccan origin had a spouse who was neither an immigrant nor a descendant of immigrants the rate is especially high for those of Tunisian and subsaharan African origin 60% and 64% respectively
While it falls to 42% for those of Turkish origin for women it is somewhat lower which is understandable but still very high in the European context tending at 41% for Algerian women 38% for Tunisian women 34% for Moroccan women and 49% for women of subsaharan African origin for Turkish women the
Figure is 7% so comparatively very low but still several times higher than in Germany while the phenomenon of intermarriages is not properly researched in most European countries I would be surprised if any country has higher level than France from what I heard from my Swedish friends the levels of actual intermarriage between ethnic
Swedish women and non-european immigrants or their descendants are very low possibly lower than the German levels the data suggests that the levels of inter ethnic marriage in Russia another Society with a prevalence of equally divided inheritance are comparable with the French case now it would of course be reductive to assign
All the differences in the inter marriage rates purely to family type a number of factors are in play the residential concentration of the minorities language barrier social strata from which they hailed in their home countries religious tradition and other considerations are absolutely relevant for example the French berbers
Of the kabili region of Algeria identified considerably more with the frankophone tradition and were more secular than the Arab majority in Algeria they do assimilated and intermar significantly more into French society nevertheless the impact of the family type cannot be underestimated I would argue that purely by this default
Anthropological base France had better starting point to integrate the immigrants from non-european societies than many other European countries especially countries with a teritory and family type like Germany or Sweden that might sound surprisingly optimistic considering the amount of dorismar are quite exceptional in the broad story of the demographic
Transition unraveling in in the past 250 years in most countries the demographic transition had a rather predictable development when the technological progress in medical and sanitary Fields accompanying the Industrial Revolution sharply diminished the infant mortality rates people for some time continued to have the traditionally very high number
Of children usually around five to seven children per woman this High birth rate combined with the suddenly increased survival rate of the infants led to Temporary population explosions that has been the case in Britain Germany Russia Japan China and almost all the smaller Nations that experience this process
France is a major exception to this rule since it actually experienced a marked decline in birth rates before it experienced the fall in infant mortality rates since the birth rat started to decline around 1780 almost a century before the British ones France also experienced significant population growth but the growth was just
Significantly smaller than that of its competitors and the geopolitical position of France within the great power competition of the times was significantly affected in 1800 France population comprised little under a fifth of the European total and France had four times the population of the United Kingdom France was thus reaching
For the hegemonic position on the European continent a century later in 1900 the French population was less than a tenth of the European total and almost identically as large as the population of the United Kingdom which is still the case today consequently the position of European hegemony was suddenly very
Distant for the French State while the adherence to the great man Theory would maybe prescribe this fall of French geopolitical power to the absence of character comparable with Napoleon Bonaparte I would argue that the demographic headwinds played a significantly larger role even though I do not want to diminish the military
Genius of the man throughout the 19th century the German fertility rate was around five children per woman the British fertility rate was around five children per woman as well and only started to decline in the last quarter of the Century meanwhile the French fertility rate gradually declined throughout the century from over four
Children per woman in its first decade to less than three by the end of it now from our contemporary perspective all of those numbers are fantastic but for a good part of the century German women had on average two children more than their French counterparts which is similar to the difference between
Contemporary Germany and Iraq at this time the French establishment became seriously anxious about its demographic shortcomings especially after the Lost franor Prussian War the much slower population growth was accompanied by similarly slow urbanization while in Britain the urban population went over 50% of the whole in the middle of the
19th century the same happened in France a century later that has nevertheless soon shown to be somewhat of an advantage while French fertility never reached astonishing Heights of the other countries and its population growth was comparatively modest it also never experienced the lowest lows and remained relatively stable the strength of the r
Ral France the so-called France profo or deep France is most likely one of the contributing factors to this as for the reasons for the exceptionality of the French case in terms of the demographic transition there is no definitive answer there are many hypothesis some of them contradictory some point at the superior
Knowledge of birth control practices among French women of the time some at the role of the French inheritance rules and some at the high level of recruitment of childless priests nuns and monks by the church cont RCT Emanuel tot claims that it was the remarkably early spread of secularization in
Northern France showcased by the collapse of priest recruitment in the first half of the 18th century combined with the early spread of literacy whatever the true reason it remains a fact that France stands alone among the major countries as a marked exception to the rule of demographic transition
Nevertheless France reversed this in the 20th and 21st centuries and has been one of the most fertile countries in the developed world French fertility never declined to the ultra low levels of under 1.5 children per woman consequently while also seriously affected by population aging the issue is less pressing than in other developed
Countries France has been one of the champions of the combination of work life and motherhood for women who tends to return to the work soon after giving birth Emanuel tot prescribes this to the long history of relative equality of women in society going as far back as
The 19th century the gap between the widespread literacy of men and women in France was only 30 years 1830 versus 1860 respectively in comparison the Gap was 100 years in Germany as a whole and 150 years in Protestant areas of Germany according to this thesis the fertility of countries with this anthropological
Feminist tradition was less affected by modern female emancipation starting in the 1960s since these societies do not culturally penalize the combination of motherhood and work non-european immigration into France started after the second World War mostly in the form of people arriving from the former French colonies to man
The booming post-war economies after the second world war it was estimated that at least 1.5 million workers were needed at first France sold them in Poland and the Netherlands but those countries could not provide sufficient numbers due to their own shortages inviting Germans was considered but public opinion was
Against this option in the aftermath of the war immigrants from Northern Italy were outbid by Swiss businesses even though tens of thousands of people came from Sicily the proposition of the governor of Algeria to recruit 100,000 Muslim workers was rejected on the grounds of Health social and moral risks
It is thus ironic that over the next three decades hundreds of thousands of people from Algeria came to France especially in the aftermath of the Algerian War the story that unfolded in France regarding immigration is relatively similar to most other major European countries that received High immigration levels in the past decades
First the immigration was justified often correctly by the need to fill the vacant jobs in heavy industry however the heavy industry jobs filled by immigrants often started to gradually move away from the Western European countries in the decades after the second world war which diminished this economic reason for immigration
Everybody also presumed that this migration will be limited and temporary there won’t be that many migrants and they will return to their home countries when they are no longer needed so to speak things turned out quite differently apart from the very high levels of immigration from Algeria which
Is sort of a special case since Algeria was an integral part of France until 1962 Tunisia Morocco former French Colonial territories in subsaharan Africa and Asia as well as neighboring European countries like Italy Spain and Portugal all provided significant sources of immigration to France after it entered the EU Romania became a
Prominent source of immigrants as well the Algerian case is interesting since apart from ethnically non-european algerians that supported France in the Algerian War the so-called haris and were subsequently resented by the majority Algerian population there were also the panoa the ethnically French colonists that settled in Algeria During
The period of French rule from 1830 the vast majority of them relocated to France after the war during the Decades of economic Miracle between 1945 and 1970 immigration contributed 40% to the French population growth a figure that becomes more impressive when considering that the fertility rate and do the
Natural population growth were very high during that period the St flation and economic disturbance that came in the 1970s led to a significant diminishing of immigration nevertheless since it also significantly lowered the birth rates migration still significantly contributed to the overall population growth over the decades the nature of
Immigration steadily shifted away from work-based migration and in 1994 just 30% of all immigrants came for work purposes from 1978 migrants gained the right to bring their family members into France based on the right to satisfying family life now at this point in my videos I usually delve into the number
Crunching of the ethnic and racial statistics of the country I am writing about however in the case of France this is somewhat complicated the only thing we can say for certain is that France is now firmly a multi-ethnic society probably the most diverse in Europe the African continent dominated the French
Immigration mix both North Africa inhabited by Arabs and Burber and subsaharan Africa together these two regions accounted for over 40% of immigration to France in many years the countries of origin to a large extent overlap with the former French Colonial Empire and in most of them Islam is the
Predominant religion that is why France has the highest Muslim population in Europe around 10% of the population of metropolitan France according to the estimates since collection of the data on religion is also banned one of the indicators of the overall population of non-european origin might be the CLE cell disease screening program for
Newborn babies CLE cell disease affects overwhelmingly non-european populations and thus only babies of at least partially non-european origin should undergo the screening in 2018 the percentage of screened babies stood at 40% with the figure climbing as high as 72% in the ilde France region surround ing Paris but it is also important to
Acknowledge that this is not a precise estimate since a number of hospitals claim to screen all the newborns the numbers are thus likely somewhat inflated and the real number will be closer to a third of the newborns and if we also include the high levels of intermarriage many of these newborns
Have one ethnically French parent according to the estimates around 5 million people of mbbe origin live in France and another 5 million are black people both from subsaharan Africa and Central and South America these two groups combine mind would do comprise around 15% of the population suppose we
Add this up with the number of minorities of Asian origin both Muslim from West Asia and various East and Southeast Asian ones in that case we can probably conclude that up to 20% of the French population is of at least partially non-european origin but there
Is just no way of knowing for sure of course European immigration is also not insignificant so the number of unmixed ethnically French people will be even lower at this point the precise percentages are likely not that important anyway to me the French case regarding integrating newcomers is somewhat contradictory on the one hand
The high levels of intermarriage point to a firmly multiethnic future and likely a cultural Fusion in my previous video on the issues stemming from immigration to Europe as a whole I pointed out that in Britain the Muslim population is heavily underrepresented in the British Armed Forces with the
Share of Muslims in the British military being almost 20 times lower than their share of the British population as a whole more British citizens fought for the Isis in Syria than served in the British armed forces in this regard it is important to note that 20% of the
French soldiers are Muslims so double their estimated population share that is undeniably a positive fact in regards to integration on the other hand it is undeniable that large parts of French society more or less openly hates it and do not identify with its symbols and values last year massive riots broke out
In France after a teenager of rabid descent was fatally shot by the police over 3,000 people were arrested 800 policemen were injured and the dages climbed to 650 million EUR I already mentioned the 2005 riots and one could spend an hour talking about all the terrorist attacks the secreation of
Churches murders of teachers manifestations of open anti-Semitism in the suburbs and such the situation is clearly not good in 2021 25 retired French generals wrote an open letter to President macron warning him that if there is no change of course the country is heading towards Civil War as in many
Other Western countries many feel that the required hard stance towards immigration integration and connected issues is hampered by the Coalition of nonprofit organizations and Progressive judges that hold an enormous influence within the institutions regardless of election results France is famous for the number of ban usually peripheral public housing City districts where the
Laws of the Republic do not apply anymore and the police or ambulances often hesitate to venture there according to the poll by Lemont three quarters of the citizens believe France is in Decline the French concept of constitutional secularism the laicite worked out great to Dame the Catholic
Church’s power in the 20th century but what worked against a religious organization whose societal power was already in Broad decline might not be effective against Islam religion that does not seem to exhibit such traits thousands of French Jews immigrate to Israel every year due to the rising level levels of anti-Semitism what is
Funny is that when you type into the Wikipedia French Riots of 2023 with the intention to read about the suburb riots connected to the death of the teenager you are reminded that those were not the only French riots in 2023 there were also large strikes protests and riots
Connected to the penion reform ened by Emanuel macron and couple of years back there were of course the large yellow West protests now there are no precise statistics on this but when one looks at the pictures from the yellow wests or Pion reform protests SL riots it is clear that the attendant are
Overwhelmingly white people it points to an interesting phenomenon within French society that Christopher Caldwell examines in his great essays on France a large part of French society largely Fran dush or Old Stock French an alism for white was pushed out of the major French cities the city centers became
The Haven of the newly emerging Cosmopolitan Tech economy winners IT workers patent lawyers managerial and executive classes and so on on the other hand the traditional workingclass inner city neighborhoods and the generously funded French public housing became the territory of people with migratory backgrounds usually of North African or
Subsaharan African origin the wealthy Urban Elites need someone to drive their Ubers deliver their food clean the apartment and offices and such after all from the former the wealthy parts of the Cities the natives were pushed out by prices from the lad the public housing and workingclass neighborhoods by
Culture the ethnically French lower and lower middle classes that had to resort to La France peripheric which is beyond comfortable commuting distance to their work in the largest French cities and are thus completely dependent on cars that is actually the main reason why the yellow wests propelled by The increased
Environmental tax on diesel got such a massive traction while the French often take pride in their welfare states many midsize cities across peripheral France like hospitals or even clinics many large cities contemplate making inner city districts low Mission zones and banning diesel or older cars from entering making commuting even harder
For many and this peripheral France again Rose last year after the proposed penion reform the approach of the French Riot police to these protests was surprisingly brutal they were not playing many people claim that the approach towards the riots by the populations of migratory origin is not
Met with the same level of repression as the protest SL riots conducted by the ethnic French although I cannot verify this claim pension reforms are needed across Europe but many people might get the impression that without millions of people of non-european immigration background being a significant drain on
The state resources the need for reforms would not be as pushing as it is no official calculation of the costs and benefits of integrating immigrants and their descendant population has been done in France still in no country in Europe where such a calculation was conducted for example Denmark
Netherlands and now also Germany was the result positive for the supporters of mass immigration it is highly doubtful the results would be different in France Emmanuel to claims the French electorate is now divided into three roughly similar thirs a third of the country backs what can be called the macron camp
Mostly the economically and socially liberal rich people and the already retired people who do not have stake in the pension reforms the lower middle- class natives back Marine lean and the younger University educated professionals what can be called champag socialists together with many of the Muslim voters support the progressive
Leftist Jean Luke melanon while the lower middle class camp and the progressives are connected by the opposition to macron’s economic policy they arbiterly and likely implica divided by the issue of immigration and integration the voting power of the ethnic minorities Muslim or not is so far not as relevant as many assume due
To the combination of younger age structure low water turnout and the fact that many of these people aren’t French citizens and are does not eligible to votee but this will be slowly changing in regards to the demographic future of France Eric kofman in his book White shift proposes three main scenarios
Largely the same for all the countries dealing with these issues the first option is that the white ethnic majority remains unmixed and the ethnic minorities either voluntarily leave or are deported I would argue that this option can be more or less ruled out millions of people were expelled from
Countries before for example Germans from Central and Eastern Europe after World War II the population exchanges between Greece and Turkey after first world war population exchanges between India and Pakistan in 1947 hungarians leaving the newly not Hungarian territories after tranon and such all those cases happened after a war or a
Secession changed the territory of some country those people were usually expelled to neighboring states which were their nation states and were willing to accept them even in the age of largely negative Sentiments of the population towards immigration the notion of forceful ethnic cleansing of millions of people in European countries
Based on religious or ethnic grounds is basically ruled out on the basis of public support due to the ethical side of the issue and I am putting aside the fact that the technical side of it is also incredibly complicated most countries are unwilling to accept their immigrants and in the case of people
Born in Europe there is no Home Country to speak of there might be deals with some African countries like Randa that could accept some people for cash for example asilum claimants who committed crimes but this won’t be on a scale that would seriously alter European demographics another variant of this
Described by demographers is what Paul Morland calls demographic engineering which means adjustment of the territory of some newly emerging state to create a needed ethnic or religious majority that was applied in the creation of Northern Ireland or Lebanon to have a Protestant majority state in the former case and a
Christian majority in the latter this option is obviously also not applicable in contemporary Europe another option is the so-called salad bowl basically it means that the groups do not significantly mix through intermarriage and continue to live side by side like different ingredients within a salid bowl I think this option is rather
Likely within societies with an egalitarian family type like Germany or Sweden resulting in low levels of intermarriage in these cases the share of the ethnic majorities will continue to diminish and the level of the decline will depend on the future levels of immigration and Native birth Rats the
Last option is the so-called Melting Pot in which the different ethnic groups mix enough to create a new fused cultural identity since the levels of intermarriage are very high in France I consider this to be the most likely option given the Myriad of serious issues I have outlined above you might
Accuse me of over optimism however these processes are not mutually exclusive Society is an incredibly complex organism and many layers lie on top of each other with often contradictory phenomena happening simultaneously on different levels while the surface level events might be incredibly dramatic High levels of intermarriage might suggest
That in the deeper currence of societal order more optimistic Futures might lie ahead but nothing is guaranteed what is certain is that due to the younger population structure and fertility Advantage the share of non-european minorities as well as Muslims within French society is going to increase detailed projections are impossible to
Find since there is the aforementioned lack of data pure Research Center projects the proportion of Muslims in France to be between 17 and 18% in 2050 depend ending on the levels of immigration France must find ways to cope with the issue stemming from this simple demographic fact while the French
Universalist tradition might predispose it to more successful assimilation than other countries reality shows that there is a clear limit to levels of ethnic change that societies can endure in a relatively short time without serious cultural repercussions France needs to reinvent its national identity otherwise it is on a trajectory to crippling
Fragmentation the challenges ahead are clear frankophone Africa is projected to double its population from 400 to over 800 million people in the next 30 Years many of those people might want to get into France the French National Assembly recently passed a law to restore the criminal offense of illegally staying in
The country it is aimed at rejected ailum claimants who usually stay within France even though they were ordered to leave for France its ethnic conundrum is likely the most pressing issue on its hands there is a lot at stake for France with Germany in clear economic decline
France has an opport to try to become the leading power in Continental Europe again its aging issues are less serious its economy is less dependent on collapsing globalization and its electricity generation is based on nuclear power we seem to be moving into a world of widespread protectionism and
Etatism it may be an advantage of the French system that it is really good in both of these France actually has a competent military a fact that cannot be disregarded in a world with increasing geopolitical tensions but intensive and widespread rioting and civil un rest based on ethnic discords do not really
Play well into this scenario we will see what the future holds whatever it will be it remains a fact that France is one of the Hallmarks of the claim that the mass immigration project of the past decades was a mistake France is now dealing with many grave societal issues
Without any easy answers it is clearly draining the French state and its Society of energy that could be otherwise used more productively in 1959 charl deal said quote it is very good that there are yellow French black French Brown French they show that France is open to all Races and has
Universal vocation but it is good on the condition that they remain a small minority otherwise France would no longer be France end of quote this quote kind of says it all while Nations and especially Universalist Nations that see themselves as bearers of certain EOS scan without issues absorb different
Ethnic and cultural elements the scale of this is crucial if charlot Deal saw contemporary France would he think that France was still France I leave the answer to you
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