Here are some random things I’ve been thinking, reading and watching lately:
The Big Long wouldn’t sell nearly as many copies as The Big Short but its readers would make far more money.
P.S. I’m writing a new book. Still workshopping the title.
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This was some good father-son financial advice on Landman:
You got two choices in life: Get really good at balancing a check book or make enough money that you don’t have to.
Most personal finance experts focus on the former while most people would be better off striving for the latter.
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Derek Thompson has an article about the impact of moderate drinking that shows every drink of alcohol takes 5 minutes off your life. But every one minute of exercise adds 5 minutes to your life.
This is why I diversify.
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I know personal finance people like to tell you how material possessions don’t make you happy. It’s probably directionally right.
But I got a new sweater recently that will bring me joy for years to come. Sometimes spending on stuff can make you happier.
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Being a billionaire on social media today is like being a child actor in the 1980s. You’re basically guaranteed to go off the rails.
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I’m a big believer in putting any sort of historical market/economic data into context. But I’m constantly shocked by the number of people on social media who think every data point is false and/or manipulated by the government or Fed.
What a terrible way to go through life not believing anything is real.
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In the 1990s no one wanted to be a sellout. In the 2020s everyone wants to be a sellout. One is not any better than the other, but it feels like wealth inequality has to get even worse under this new mindset.
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Every technological boom in history: The price can never go down. What’s the catalyst?
After the boom turns into a bust: That was an obvious bubble. Of course it crashed.
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Bitcoin really is proof that you don’t have to be right to make money. Everything bitcoin people have ever predicted it would do has been wrong…except the price going up.
And I say this without a hint of shade either. It’s impressive.
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I know people keep waiting for all of the speculative excesses in the markets to go away but what if we’re just a gambling society now that it’s so easy to do on your phones?
Parlays at DraftKings, options on Robinhood, memecoins on Coinbase — it’s all the same thing.
The pandemic turned us all into a bunch of degenerate gamblers.
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If you would have told me 2-3 years ago mortgage rates would be stuck at 7% in 2025 all the while:
- Stocks keep hitting all-time highs
- Housing prices keep hitting all-time highs
- Real GDP growth keeps coming in at 2-3%
I wouldn’t have believed you.
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[Jerry Seinfeld voice] Did you ever notice that the guy who says “if you take away all the best performing stocks this year the stock market isn’t up all that much” is the same guy who always complains when economists show inflation ex-energy & food?
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I re-watched one of the best sequels of all-time this weekend, Before Sunset.1
As they’re walking the streets of Paris rekindling an old love, Ethan Hawke’s Jesse tells Julie Delpy’s Celine about a study comparing paraplegics to lottery winners:
I found the actual study. This wasn’t just some movie magic.
Happiness is such a complex topic. I don’t think we’ll ever figure out the perfect way to find it.
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This must be the worst Fed rate-cutting cycle ever. Borrowing rates have gone up while yields on savings accounts, money markets, CDs and T-bills have gone down.
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Market sentiment by year:
- 2017 – I’m a genius!
- 2018 – I’m an idiot
- 2019 – I’m a genius again!
- 2020 – I’m an idiot…no wait I’m a genius!
- 2021 – I’m a golden god
- 2022 – I’m done for
- 2023 – I’m back!
- 2024 – I’m the world’s smartest investor!
- 2025 – TBD
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It’s impossible to offer someone advice on individual stocks. For every Nvidia, Netflix or Facebook that crashes 70% but comes back there are dozens of stocks that never return to their previous highs.
Every sell decision on an individual stock is purely outcome-based even though it should be related to your financial plan.
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You’re not as dumb as you felt in 2022 or as brilliant as you felt in 2024.
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“Just save more money!” -someone who make a lot of money
“It’s easy to save 50-70% of your income and become a FIRE member.” -software developer with no kids who makes six figures
“College is a waste of time.” -tech bro who went to Stanford
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It’s hard to see risks that haven’t happened yet but after they occur you look for them everywhere.
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Everyone and their brother was predicting a recession in 2021, 2022 and 2023 but now no one is.
What if we just don’t have a recession for the rest of this decade?
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Josh Brolin once told Marc Maron after Sacario wrapped shooting that he looked at Benicio Del Toro said, “Well, that didn’t work.”
In the words of William Goldman, “Nobody knows anything.”
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Further Reading:
Signs of a Top
1The Rewatchables always gets me.
