I don’t make a lot of predictions but here are two I have about the next 10 years or so:
(1) Wealth inequality is going to get worse.
(2) There is going to be a huge generational divide that opens up because of this.
Baby boomers are the biggest, wealthiest generation we’ve ever seen.
If you include the Silent Generation, older Americans hold nearly two-thirds of the wealth in this country. Gen X has one quarter of the wealth while Millennials own one-tenth of the pie.
Because of the wealth divergence, older generations have the ability to spend more money:
There was a story in The Wall Street Journal that looked at the bifurcation in the economy that’s great for older parents but not so great for their grown-up children:
Here’s one anecdote from the story:
When Milan Jevtitch finished his Ph.D in chemical engineering in 1986, he got a job right away at Procter & Gamble. He climbed the corporate ladder, bought a spacious four-bedroom home for his family and saved for a comfortable retirement.
His daughter’s job search has been much tougher. Anais Jevtitch, 24, graduated cum laude from Ohio University in December 2023 and has lost count of the number of applications she’s submitted for positions in marketing, social media and film and television production. Nearly two years later she is still living in her parents’ colonial-style home on the outskirts of Philadelphia, working part-time jobs as she continues her relentless search.
“‘Ghosted’ is the term she uses,” Jevtitch, 68, said of his daughter. “I’m very frustrated, almost angry…It’s really difficult for her to even get interviews.”
Young people are also concerned about the prospect of artificial intelligence replacing their entry-level jobs. The youth unemployment rate has gone from 5.7% to 10.7%.
The housing market isn’t helping matters.
Data from John Burns shows first-time homebuyers are older than ever before:
This is likely the worst time ever to be a first-time homebuyer from the perspective of cost.
So that’s it? Young people are screwed?
It’s not easy to be a young person right now. But look at the history of youth unemployment:
That 5.7% figure was the lowest since the 1950s! The current rate is still below long-term averages.
Look at how high youth unemployment has gotten historically:
1950 – 14.0%
1958 – 16.9%
1961 – 17.2%
1971 – 16.0%
1975 – 16.3%
1983 – 19.9%
1992 – 14.5%
2003 – 14.8%
2009 – 19.9%
Young people have gone through challenging times in the past and come out OK on the other side.
I graduated in 2004.
The only jobs available to me at the time were becoming a mortgage broker or being an analyst for a subprime lending unit at a bank (dodged a bullet there). When the 2008 financial crisis hit, everyone told us:
Just be happy you even have a job.
You want a raise or promotion? In this economy?!
It took years for me to find my way. There were so many jobs I applied for that I didn’t get. I felt sorry for myself. I felt lost. I felt like a failure at times.
But not getting those jobs was one of the best things that ever happened to me. It made me apply myself to stand out from the crowd.
I read a million books. I studied. I got my CFA. I went to school at night to get my MBA. I asked for help from my boss. I started writing.
Living through a difficult job market forced me to try harder. You can either focus on the aggregate economic data and become a statistic, or you can try to improve your own station in life by focusing on what you control.
The good news is that young people are more prepared for this moment than I was.
They’re smarter, have more education and have a better grasp of their career opportunities. Every time I talk to a group of college students I come away impressed.
This week I spoke to a finance class from the University of Colorado. Instead of preparing a speech I asked them to pepper me with questions. I was blown away by the topics they wanted to discuss — dollar cost averaging, automating investments, applying market wisdom to your career path, thinking about investing at market highs, choosing your investment philosophy, the biggest investment mistakes, investor psychology and more.
These kids are so much further along in their learning journey than I was at their age. I had to play catch-up for years after I got out of school. The young people I talk to are already following the markets, reading about them, studying history, understanding market psychology, listening to podcasts and more.
I didn’t do any of that stuff at their age.
Young people know the kinds of firms they want to work for. They know what kind of work they want to do.
I was flying blind coming out of college.
So yes, young people face numerous challenges today. Some are new but every young generation in history has dealt with something.
I’m confident today’s youth is much more prepared than any generation that came before them.
I remain bullish on today’s young people. They’re going to figure it out.
Michael and I talked about inequality, generational warfare, the plight of the young person and much more on this week’s Animal Spirits video:
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Further Reading:
All the Jobs I Didn’t Get
Now here’s what I’ve been reading lately:
Books:
