I’m going through my annual tradition of updating historical return data now that we’ve turned the calendar on another year.
Some people have resolutions. I have spreadsheets.
Aswath Damodaran updates annual returns for stocks, bonds, cash, gold and housing at NYU each year going back to 1928.
I love slicing and dicing this dataset.
Here are the updated returns through year-end 2025 (along with the inflation rate for good measure):
Now here are the returns by decade going back to the 1930s:
Gold and stocks are both having a wonderful decade thus far. Bonds…not so much.
It’s also interesting to note that as painful as higher inflation has felt in the 2020s, it was higher in the 1940s, 1970s and 1980s. We’re not really that far off from the historical average of 3%.1
I’ve noted this before but I like regular reminders — in 4 out of the past 5 decades, the stock market has provided above average double-digit annual returns. As painful as the lost decade from 2000-2009 was, the past 5 decades have seen phenomenal gains for investors in risk assets.
If you go back one more decade, gold has experienced double-digit annual returns in 3 of the past 6 decades. The yellow metal has been feast or famine when you look at decade-long return numbers.
Now, for another annual tradition — here is a scatterplot of S&P 500 returns from 1928-2025:
The stock market in any given year is unpredictable.
Asset class returns in any given decade are often unpredictable as well.
When we check back in on these numbers next year the annual returns for 2026 are anyone’s guess.
But the long-term returns won’t change all that much.
There’s in lesson in that dichotomy.
Further Reading:
Is This the Worst Decade Ever For Bonds?
1Send your inflation hate mail to dontshootthemessenger@nope.com
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