We’re in the fun phase of innovation right now.
Tons of overreactions. All kinds of predictions are being thrown around. No one knows what will happen but plenty of scenarios seem plausible.
Some people think it could be the greatest technological breakthrough in history. It will solve diseases and create so much abundance we won’t know what to do with ourselves.
Others are worried about creating a god in a box that could lead to very bad outcomes — biological weapons, deepfakes, mass job displacement, etc.
Then there’s the group that thinks AI is nothing more than a parlor trick.
This is the only group I do not agree with. I think AI is going to have massive societal implications, some good and some bad, like most technological breakthroughs.
Let’s go through some of the potential pros and cons of AI:
Pro: AI will streamline the automation of repetitive tasks. The productivity gains could be massive.
Con: Anthropic CEO Daio Amodei said AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs.
The good news is AI hasn’t had a meaningful impact on the labor market as a whole just yet. The prime-age labor force participation is more or less back at all-time highs last seen in the 1990s:
There aren’t as many job openings but there haven’t been mass layoffs.
Unfortunately, it’s probably coming.
Pro: Agentic AI is coming. In the not-too-distant future, you will have an AI personal assistant in your ear/pocket, probably through your phone and computer.
You’ll give it tasks and your personal AIssistant (still work-shopping this) will plan it out, test different results, fix mistakes and give you a finished product.
And you won’t have to oversee this process.
It’s going to be wild and make many parts of your life far easier to deal with.
Con: Fraud is going to run rampant. Fake videos, fake phone calls, fake emails, financial phishing scams — AI is going to give criminals and hucksters all kinds of new tools to take advantage of people.
It’s not going to be pretty as we work through this.
Pro: AI doesn’t sleep. It doesn’t get tired. It doesn’t have family issues. Once you know how to use it correctly, this technology is going to save a lot of time at work and in your personal life.
Con: Most people already rely too heavily on technology. AI is going to make this worse. Are people going to have relationships with their AI operating system like Joaquin Phoenix in Her? Probably.
Are more people going to be interacting with AI rather than going outside to get some sun, exercise and fresh air? Most likely.
Is AI going to be used by some to waste time watching slop? Definitely.
Social media has been terrible for the mental health of society. AI might make it worse.
Pro: AI might be coming at the perfect time as we deal with a growing fertility crisis (via The WSJ):
This is not just a U.S. phenomenon. It’s global:
As nations get wealthier, healthcare improves, life expectancies extend, and infant mortality declines, people have fewer kids. It’s a sign of progress.
But it can also hamper economic growth.
We’re going to need higher productivity in the labor force in the decades ahead. We’re going to need robots. Who else is going to take care of 70 million aging baby boomers?
The labor force transition might not be pretty in the meantime but we need AI to fill the hole for declining fertility rates around the world.
Con: Have you seen Terminator? What if we have a Sky Net situation where AI decides to take over.
James Cameron himself said this is a concern.
Do I actually believe AI is a threat to humanity? No not really.
Is it scary that there is a non-zero chance this happens? I’d say so.
Pro: Everyone now has access to a genius-level thinker who can explain anything in a matter of seconds.
When you ask one of the LLMs a question the responses feel magical. You now have the ability to better understand any and every topic you’re curious about.
This will certainly lead to better decisions from people who know how to utilize these tools.
Con: AI is going to make some people dumber. Cheating on tests is already a huge problem.
You can use it to learn or turn your brain off completely by allowing it to do the thinking for you. Cheating on tests is already a huge problem.
That’s not a good outcome but certainly one that will play out for certain groups of people.
Pro: We could see a wave of innovation in scientific breakthroughs, drug discovery and the curing of diseases as AI accelerates research capabilities.
Con: Inequality is going to get way worse. The gap between the haves and the have-nots is going to widen. A lot of people are going to get left behind through no fault of their own.
This is something our politicians should be actively planning for. I don’t have much confidence that our leaders are ready for what’s coming.
The probability that AI causes more social unrest is high.
Pro: AI will likely make society safer in a lot of ways as it’s used to provide checks and balances and reduce human error.
Con: AI is expensive to create. Data centers are cost-prohibitive. AI requires tons of energy.
Final verdict?
I truly have no idea how this plays out. My best guess is AI will disrupt millions of jobs, improve productivity, give us all personal assistants, and have a bunch of unintended consequences.
The economy is extremely dynamic so it should also create new jobs, but the transition period is likely to be painful for millions of people.
There will be a lot of love and hate towards AI in the years ahead.
Michael and I talked about all things AI and more on this week’s Animal Spirits video:
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Further Reading:
The Human Toll of Artificial Intelligence
Now here’s what I’ve been reading lately:
Books:
