Indo Myanmar Relations, Current Situation, and Implications for India’s Security

Good morning everyone I request everyone to kindly settle down and please put your phones on silent mode thank you Namaste and good morning to all I Shad Das Burman on behalf of leftenant General dashan Singh director General Claus would like to welcome this August Gathering to the talk on Indo Myanmar

Relations current situation and implications for India’s security the program for the day is as flashed on the Screen the increasing political instability in Myanmar became a matter of grave concern for India and the World At Large the Civil War or the Myanmar spring Revolution and the people’s defensive War became an ongoing conundrum following myanmar’s long running insurgencies which escalated further in response to the 2021 military coup deta

And the subsequent violent Crackdown on anti- coup protests such instability has potential security implications for India with the risk of refugee inflow or illegal immigration from Myanmar coupled with the problem of ringas economic and social stability in the region is at stake and detrimental to Regional security the welcome remarks for the

Talk would be delivered by leftenant General dasan Singh pvsm avsm retired director General Claus the general was former Army commandant of the army war College Mau former core Commander 11 core and chief of staff Eastern command he was also the Inspector General operations national security guards the

General is also a visiting faculty at rru gandhinagar may I now invite DJ Claus to kindly deliver his welcome address a very good morning to all of you and a warm welcome uh dear Ambassador gam madya General Kalita uh dgb J ner uh distinguished guests esteemed attendees ladies and gentlemen a very

Good morning to you it is with great pleasure and honor that we welcome welcome you all to the seminar on Indo Myanmar relations current situation and implications for India’s security this event promises to be an insightful exploration into a critical aspect of our national strategic landscape we are

Privileged to have with us today three eminent personalities whose expertise and insights will undoubtedly enrich our discussions former Ambassador Gat madya brings a wealth of diplomatic experience and new understanding of bilateral relations joining him are two distinguished military leaders left General RP Kalita for Army Commander e Eastern command and

Left General PC ner current director general of Assam rifles their vast knowledge and perspective of the subject and the issues that confront us due to the explosive internal situation that prevails in Myanmar and its deep impact on internal security of our country large ly in the border states of Manipur

And to some extent in mizoram and arunachal Pradesh will undoubtedly shed light on the security Dynamics in the region we’re also honored to have in attendance uh serving and retired senior officers of the Indian Defense Forces members of the academic fraternity and fellow think tanks your presence underscores the importance of our

Discussions today and reflects your commitment to fostering deeper understanding and collaboration in matters of National Security well uh the reason to select the issue for discussion is the extremely volatile situation in Myanmar due to the ongoing operation 1027 launched by the Brotherhood Alliance comprising three Rebel groups

Tang National Army Aran Army and the M andda or Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army the the screen on in front of you actually depicts the rise of violence which has taken place since since the time hun has actually come into power and you will see the whole

Area now almost turning red so that’s the kind of internal volatile situation which is there in Myanmar which definitely has a very deep impact on our internal uh security also and as well as the National Security the statement of the Hun chief of February 24 uh in a

Rare public admission is quite revealing but even this I suppose is an understatement he said at a National Defense security council meeting in February that the country is not fully Under The Hun’s control and went on to say that 198 townships were 100% peaceful which I have my serious doubts

In 67 townships security must be of a priority and that in another 65 it needs a very very serious security measures to get it under control uh many believe that the conflict has led to Exodus of people from Myanmar uh into the stried on border state of Manipur causing further

Complexities in the internal security of the state which is already witnessing uh witnessing a serious unrest due to the kooki MTI ethnic conflict we also need to take note of the fact that Myanmar Army has never witnessed such Fierce challenge to its par uh probably since their independence in fact uh they are

Now forced to announce compulsory conscription of men and women to meet the challenges posed by the Brotherhood Army this is definitely going to have further implications on our national security then there is this deep Chinese interest in Myanmar with the Chinese hobnobbing with both Tatam as well as

The rebels and add to this is a layer of the US Le interest in the region which which poses further problems for us the important questions then before us are which we would like to debate today is firstly what will be the impact of the volatile internal situation in Myanmar

On our national security secondly is tatad likely to fail in retaining power and if that happens what thereafter and how should we how should India negotiate through this model uh thirdly what happens to the various joint projects in Myanmar as part of our act East policy there are some news filtering out on

This particular aspect thirdly what happens to the various joint projects in Myanmar as part sorry how how do we deal with the external actors like China and the us over the issue of Myanmar without compromising our interests and fifthly we need to seriously analyze the impact on the border management including the

Issue of border fencing and free movement regime and finally how do we go about resolving our internal problems in the region especially Manipur as we delve into the intricacies of Indo Myanmar relations and their implications for India’s security we anticipate Lively debate inside ful analysis and meaningful exchange of ideas together we

Aim to gain comprehensive understanding of the current situation explore avenues for enhancing cooperation once again we extend a very warm welcome to all our esteemed guests and participants we we look forward to a very very engaging and a lively discussion thank you gentlemen J hind over to you

Shria thank you sir ladies and gentlemen to start the proceedings of the talk may I invite Ambassador gutam mukad ambassad mukad served in various capacities in Indian embassies and missions in Mexico Cuba France and the United Nations the ministry of Defense of India and eventually as Ender ambassador to Syria

Afghanistan and Myanmar currently he is associated with the Niti io’s Niti forum for the Northeast as an adviser and also holds the chair of CIA task force on economic ties with Cambodia lios Vietnam and Myanmar his areas of Interest includes Afghanistan and Myanmar India’s act East policy and Regional cooperation

Involving South and Southeast Asia with a focused on Northeast of India over to you Ambassador mad firstly a very good morning to all of you especially our distinguished panelists the director general of clause uh General Kalita General ner and of course uh this very sizable uh and interested audience uh first let me

Thank uh DJ Claus and Claus for this invitation to so to say welcome and also set the stage for our chief attractions of the day which is General KH who has held the post of Eastern Army commander and DJ AR General ner who has been really in the hot seat in many ways

And uh between the two of them I can’t imagine two people uh in a better vantage point to comment on both the external internal and Border management issues that I think uh this entire situation between the Northeast and mymar throws up so uh you know we already have a kind of uh

General introduction uh given by um by General dant so let me just focus on I think a little bit of a background of the current situation that we are facing uh in Myanmar uh firstly you know um I I should make a remark that for a strange reason starting from the 1960s military

Coup the way the military kta at that time itself turned its back on the world became very isolationist uh virtually xenophobic uh India and Myanmar have virtually had a kind of a relationship of Amnesia although we have been civilizational neighbors through history and even during the colonial period we

Actually had an close administrative relationship uh India and Myanmar virtually forgot that we were Neighbors in fact when we think of our immediate neighbors it’s very rare that we think of Myanmar with whom we share 1,643 kilometers of you know Common border we think of them as a neighbor

And strangely that Amnesia continues despite L’s despite act East and despite uh you know all the projects that we have taken till today we don’t have a correspondent in or a media correspondent based in Myanmar most of the news that we get is from third party sources uh the situation in Myanmar is

Basically The Preserve of a few a handful of people who are following the issue very closely uh and in general most of the Indian populist even I would say to a great extent the informed populace is in the dark about really what happens in Myanmar and as a result of which there

There’s a large degree of misunderstanding uh about what is happening uh the second thing that I would like to say is that um you know the key point is that Myanmar is virtually in the throws of an armed Revolution and this armed Revolution really goes back 50 years or maybe more

Than 50 years 60 years to the first military coup in 1962 a pro-democracy movement has always been embedded in Myanmar since 1962 it has come out in various forms in 1962 very fiercely in 1988 uh once again you know there were other kinds of movements like the saffron revolution in 2007 uh and

Finally we have the elections that took place in 201 1011 and then 2015 and 2021 and this time the reaction to uh the what is officially you can call it an internal military coup uh in Myanmar has been years and the big difference between let’s say 1962 1988 and 2021 is

That from 201 to 2021 Myanmar underwent uh 10 years of relatively open Democratic rule with media freedoms e economic freedoms and for 50 50 years a populace that was generally subdued isolated and uh by and large suppressed was able to finally um you know uh raise its heads and in these

10 years a new generation came about a new generation helped by technology by Facebook by the it Revolution by International attention diplomatic uh uh recognition and foreign investment that gave tremendous opportunities to the youth so when in 2021 the military conducted February 1 2021 the coup uh

For the first time in many ways uh in myanmar’s history the entire population of Myanmar raised rose in Revolt uh against the HTA against the military um and although the map for example may show you that large portions of the rabi Basin and Shan state are relatively

Quiet uh as far as the population is concerned I can uh assure you that the HTA has virtually no support even in those areas they might not be restive they might not be violent but the sentiment against the kta remains extremely strong um in many ways uh what we are

Seeing today in Myanmar is a kind of New Freedom Movement uh and I you know I to to to illustrate that I would say that in many ways myanmar’s Freedom was very different in 1948 when they attained Freedom it was very different from the freedom struggle that we had in India in

Myanmar it was led by the tamado in fact LED byang sui’s father General angang bujuk anang uh who was a great person himself but it never took on the character of a mass movement or a Democratic movement as we had in India starting with the Congress then of

Course by Mahatma Gandhi so it was never a people’s movement in some sense the Freedom Movement of Myanmar was you can say hijacked or better still appropriated by The tamador Who then thought of themselves as the Guardians of the unity and integrity uh of Myanmar and they have very fiercely defended

That unity and integrity uh very often there is fear about Chinese subversion but Myanmar has had a long history of resistance also to the Chinese uh they are fiercely independent and in many ways the Myanmar military molds itself in the in the image of the great

Emperors of Myanmar of the of Burma of the past um so um uh I’ll just end that sort of portion uh of the talk of the introduction at that point and turn to the present situation and then of course give the floor to General Kalita and

General n so what we have had is uh as I mentioned to you 2021 post CP uh the basic difference was that in Myanmar basically you’ve had three pillars and centers of power there has been the army of course all powerful there has been the ethnic armed organizations uh

Roughly 17 to 20 of them that are still pretty active and the other sort of Third Leg of this structure has been by and large the Democratic of peoples or students movements in which there is a rich history in Myanmar in the past by and large the military has been able to

Rule by keeping one or the other on its side so in 1988 when you had a pro-democracy and a very strong pro-democracy movement uh whose icon became do onang sui uh the military made peace uh with the many separate armed insurgencies that were taking place along its peripheries and incidently uh

One interesting fact is that while all of them have had a common enemy in the kta the insurgencies have never been able to get together and form one common uh enemy in other words 17 or 20 insurgencies were fighting their separate battles against uh the same

Enemy but never got together and in fact this is inherent in the ethnic and tribal uh nature of the society that uh there is a strong tendency to preserve territory and Turf and not share it with others but one big difference two big differences that occurred in this particular conflict has

Been in post 2021 the large majority of Bama youth who uh first rose up in peaceful uh resistance uh to the Myanmar amiu uh in the form of the civil defense movements uh which were violent ly suppressed finally they took to a kind of armed struggle and for the armed

Struggle they left the cities where they were they left the villages and joined the ethnic armed organizations for their training and for their uh you literally military training and these were young people people in colleges uh uh who left their homes left their families and went

To fight uh in the hill areas so lots of you know the Karens were were training people the kachins were training people so this is how the armed resistance grew up uh by 2022 you know if you looked at in terms of territory they had managed to gain control between the E ethnic

Armed organizations which are now called Ethnic resistance organizations and the PDFs the people’s Defense Forces that had mushroomed literally all over the country along and around the townships uh they probably controlled uh roughly you know 50 to 60% of the territory but not necessarily the population of

Myanmar the big difference in the last 3 four months has been the uh offensive and I would say the coordinated offensive of the three Brotherhood Alliance consisting of the tnla mdaa and the arakan Army which general Duan spoke about who coordinated these operations and have virtually taken control of the whole of the

Northeast of Myanmar which is largely Northern Shan uh bordering on China without China saying or doing much in fact the only intervention that China has made has has to prevent their takeover of let’s say the biggest city in that area which is lashio uh so they’ve managed it to a certain extent

But they haven’t opposed it and of course there are other reasons for it which we can go into in the in the in the discussions so one has been this coordinated operations and this coordinated operations started as operation 1027 because it started in October 27th and then uh uh then kind of

Uh spread to other parts of Myanmar so today we see a really strong resistance in arakan in Rakin and we also see a very strong resistance in the Karan and kareni areas which are just east of of napor and that movement was called the 1111 movement because that was initiated

On November 11 and between them now uh they have taken over 50 towns which is the major difference and many of these towns included include border towns on the Indian side zatar uh in mizoram and on the uh Mar side on the China side most of the Border trading points so in

Effect the ethnic CED organizations now control many of the Border points and uh as a coroller they also are going to be controlling more and more the areas where we have our strategic projects the kaladan multimodal transit trade and Transit project and the trilateral highway which is largely on the border

Between TAMU and miva close to to Mandel so I think this is one kind of effect of of all this and our problem I think the problem that we’ve had um you know in our official policy is that we have still tended to look at the Myanmar

Problem from the prism of 1988 and 1990 in 1998 and 1990 as you know we took a rather overtly pro-democracy stance uh and then the Myanmar Army was able to uh you know attain control uh over the situation by making peace with the ethnic armed org ganizations with the

Help of China and then suppressing the uh agitation in the Bama Heartland but also what they did was they struck up a narrative of BMA nationalism and Buddhism and between the military the BMA nationality and the Buddhist religion they in many ways actually uh you can say coopted uh the resistance on

A somewhat more nationalistic project uh now uh as as a result of that we had to walk back on our Pro democracy stance in in 1988 and starting from the mid 1990s make overtures to the tamador who that was then led by General tanu and likewise General tan also reached out to

India because what he found and I think this has been a reality in Myanmar that every time Myanmar has been isolated and uh pushed to a corner uh they have fallen more and more into the grip of the Chinese and the Chinese grip has been extremely uncomfortable to them and

So many ways you can understand the opening of the um military in 2010 and 11 as an opening to get out of the Chinese clutches they first reached out to India also to asan but when they found that that was not sufficient in effect they uh opened out to the west

And subsequently both the rohinga crisis and the present crisis has once again isolated them internationally all the gains that they had made in those last 10 years have been lost and once again they are thrown into the hands of the Chinese and secondarily also to the Russians in fact the Russians have taken

The lead in this in many ways and provided the armaments to support it um by and large International intervention hasn’t worked the only game in town has been the asan uh you know five-point initiative that has been a complete failure uh the US has largely kept its

Hands off uh they they remain engaged mainly on the East through Thailand uh there is a tendency in India especially among security analysts uh to look at you know look for external drivers of the conflict but and tendency also to look at uh China and the us behind every

Rebel bed but I think that is uh quite a false uh understanding of the situation uh the Myanmar crisis is 95% homegrown no Rebel movement anywhere uh is entirely free of some external uh interest and in in involvement and a very interesting fact is that this is

One crisis in which China too has been extremely off balance uh uh the United States hasn’t really promoted democracy in fact their interest in democracy democracy has now shrunk to Europe itself and mainly confined around uh your Ukraine uh and uh in fact this is one area where the China and us have

Been in consultations mostly away from the media but very recently uh uh openly uh when Jake Sullivan the National Security adviser of the United States uh met and publicly uh talked about uh the meeting uh with uh foreign minister wangi so what do we expect now and I

Think these are some of the questions that uh we could pose uh to our chief panelists today uh which is uh what is the future of Myanmar will the Hun be able to hold on and if so what is there a likelihood is there a possibility that

Myanmar May baniz and I say this uh very uh with with due consideration because there is a tendency again in India to think that force will prevail and in a way this change came about sometime in the 90s in the ’90s uh in the case of

Sri Lanka uh you know the LT who we kind of helped uh turned its back on us and bit Us in 1988 and 1990 in Myanmar we supported pro-democracy agitations and again we had to walk back uh the talk uh on that in Afghanistan our initial reaction under prime minister Chri

Charan Singh was to resist and criticize the Soviet intervention but once again sort of realism prevailed and prime minister Indira Gandhi when she came back took on a much more Pro Soviet stance and overall our Evolution has been for a country that was born under the star of people’s movements and

Freedoms uh we have largely turned our back on them and we are dealing with the status quo largely with the security Centric perspective perspective uh in our region and Beyond Beyond in fact today if we look around the world we are largely behind uh in many ways behind a

Lot of dictatorships including in Afghanistan uh next door so we have this issue and the second issue that I think is very fundamental is to what extent and how much is this impacting on us uh when we talk about roughly as far as I understand from the Sam rifles about

30,000 plus minus refugees not internal not illegal Mig migrants refugees in Myanmar and if I understand right probably not more than 2,000 since 2021 in Manipur uh despite you know the talk about it uh if if I understand right the impact so far has been relatively minimal compare this with 1 million

Refugees from Myanmar rohinga refugees from Myanmar in Bangladesh or Tibetans or tamils or bangladeshis in India in previous conflicts in fact just one dimension of the conflict which is so-called Refugee impact is is remarkably minuscule uh there are other dimensions illegal trafficking uh I think and once again we would like to

Focus a little bit on that there are the insurgencies which are the real insurgencies in the Northeast and what impact do they have uh I would Hazard and like General Kalita and general n can correct me on this that perhaps the biggest Insurgency still alive uh in the

Northeast uh is the me Insurgency in about seven prescribed uh groups that still exist while there are talks on with factions of the U ulfa and of course uh with the nscn uh this is one outfit with whom we don’t really have serious talks uh other than a very

Dubious uh you know surrender or a peace agreement that was struck recently with one faction of the UNF so I think this is the broad sort of canvas uh that we have and finally uh what kind of strategy should India approach if if if the kta is losing control if there is a

Danger of uh mianmar slipping towards balkanization uh if there is such a thing as a national Unity government if there are things like the national Unity consultative committee which is a body underneath the nug which brings together all the resistance forces from the cdms up to the uh armed organizations that

Are fighting who have adopted what is called a Federal Union charter for Myanmar so what is our best approach is our best approach to continue to back the HTA or do we start steering a course towards a new reality a new reality on our Frontiers and a new reality on

Myanmar the possibility of a breakup of Myanmar and is a federal union democracy a better way to protect our interests is it likely to succeed that experiment is it a better way to protect our interests uh and uh and what are our fundamental interests I think our fundamental

Interest in Myanmar is a United Myanmar that looks increasingly unlikely but if there is any hope of keeping Myanmar United um it’s my view that it’s probably through a federal United uh you know Federal Democratic Union rather than by force and if that is the case uh

And we have to Hazard some guests about the future of Myanmar then what kind of diplomatic initiative should we have taken and if we did not take them in the past what should the Diplomatic initiatives be and I hope our chief speakers will be able to address I think

Some of these larger questions that I’m posing thank you very much I’m sorry if I’ve exceeded my uh introduction time but I hope we have a good discussion after this thank you thank you sir for the enthusiastic start to the talk ladies and gentlemen the first panelist for the talk is

Leftenant General RP Kalita pvsm uym avsm SM vssm retired he is the former Chief of Staff Eastern command and former co- Commander three Cod May I please invite General Kalita to kindly start his talk uh morning ladies and gentlemen it’s an honor to be here today to speak on a

Subject which is very topical given the current Dynamics in Northeast as well as development in Myanmar uh first I would like to thank the DG Claus for giving me this opportunity of sharing my views and in fact uh Ambassador mupad has made my job easier by covering the background in in inadequate

Detail uh we all are aware that we share about 1643 kilometers of borders with Myanmar and have historical cultural and ethnic linkages and both the countries were at some point of time ruled by British who of course like in all other areas have left lot of Legacy issues to be resolved

By the such independent countries in the middle of 20th century and it goes without saying that the developments in Myanmar impacts the fragile geopolitics of our extremely restive Northeastern region so that is something which we have to keep in mind while developing our approach or our comprehensive plan for Myanmar as well

As for the Northeast and of course it is the gateway to the southeast Asia and if our India’s Act is policy has to frac defy it has to be implemented it holds the key similarly for China it is also extremely important for China because it opens up the Avenue towards the warm

Indian oan Waters so that’s the importance of Myanmar as far as uh India and China concern as brought out earlier Myanmar since its independence has transitioned through very very fragile Democratic rules and mostly through military rulers and the internal fault lines have also beset Myanmar with Insurgency movement right from its

Independence so the military coup in 20 2021 I would say has brought out all these contradictions internal contradictions and fault lines together and in search for a solution I don’t know when the solu solution is going to come and in what form it is going to

Come it is for us to see and in as far as India is concerned an instability in Myanmar is not in our interest at all that goes without saying before we come to the uh Indo Myanmar relation and its impact on India security I’d just like to even at the

Cost of repetition just highlight certain key issues which has an which has an impact or an influence in developing our approach towards Myanmar The first is the issue of Insurgency which Myanmar has been fighting since its independence but the type of Insurgency has brought out by Ambassador mupad is slightly different than what

Our common understanding is at presently there are about almost about 19 active in insurent groups who are active towards the northeast of Myanmar as wello to the western side of the Myanmar you you all are aware of the kachin state then the current state Mo

And as well as Shan State and Rak and Chin all these states have got active inent groups which have traditionally been fighting for some for autonomous autonomous thing some for Independence some for sovereignty and they have never been United you know they have never been uned they have been temporarily

Having some sort of you know Common understanding to achieve a particular goal and thereafter there has never been any binding agreement between all these ethnic en and group that has been operating if you compare the strength uh Myanmar Army has got a total strength of about 450,000 as opposed to that the combined

Total of the ethnic armed groups is about two lakhs so given the strength and the and the weapons or whatever they have uh they are a viable Force but they have never been United that is why they have not been able to you know pursue their objective as also as brought out

By mukad the Myanmar Army has at times sided or get caught into death side some of these Insurgent groups so that their own objectives are pursued uh the second Point what I want to speak about which has an impact is the Golden Triangle the famous or the infamous Golden Triangle which you all

Keep talking about the eastern part of the Sun State which borders LA and uh Thailand is known as that golden uh triangle which produces used to produce about 25% of the W opium which was grown earlier though since 2015 there has been a reduction in the Opium that is grown in

These areas of which is commonly known as Golden Triangle what has happened is now the heroin refining has turned into more profitable and convenient chem chemical refining of drugs and where India comes into this Golden Triangle connect is the supply of Pudo edine Tablets by illegal syndicates that are

Operating in with the help of the Indian inent groups which transports them in into Myanmar gets them refined in this area and the finished product is again transported through India so that sort of you know that uh Syndicate which is working is also of course aided by various armed groups who are operating

Both in India as well as in Myanmar and there are also reports that they they are being financed by uh or the interest is being shown by the Myanmar Army as well as the these ethnic armed groups which are operating in this area in addition to that the mafias from Myanmar

Thailand Laos and China also run those production refineries so these illegal activities and the fund that is generated from these activities are known as a source of income for all the insurgencies that are active in the areas in Myanmar as well as in Indian Northeast the next issue is about the

Rohinga refugee crisis we all are aware how it has uh come into being and 1982 when were declared as foreigners and thereafter there was an oppressive regime and some cleansing operation which was carried out which forced close to 1 million uh ringas into Bangladesh some of them have

Also coming to enter India and they are unconned in various places like jamu even in Delhi and in Northeast now this radicalization of this rohinga population which are living within India is a potential threat to our integrity as well so that is something which we

Need to keep in mind as far as our security operatus is concerned the next issue is the the camps which are there of Indian insurent groups in Myanmar because of the ethnic linkages we all we are aware that we have the similar people with the similar ethnicity living on both sides of the

Indo Myanmar border and then all these Indian insent groups whether it is NSN im or NSN Kya or the B based insent groups mes and cookies all have their camps across particularly in the sagay and the chin region of Myanmar so uh so these are the complex

Cities as far as uh we are concern you all are aware that in 19 and 2019 and 20 uh Indian army along with the Myanmar Army had carried out an operation called as operation Sunrise which was launched against the Indian insent group camps both towards the northern part of the

Sagay region as also in the chin area where some of the inent camps were destroyed by the Myanmar armies as well while Indian army blocked or the established uh blockage in the Indo Myanmar border uh there is another important aspect which impacts the uh the our security as well is the relationship

Between Myanmar and China uh the China and Myanmar like India and Myanmar have also historical linkages there are number of Chinese population people of Chinese ethnicity Who were settled in the Northern and the Eastern parts of Myanmar which borders between the two countries and they have very close relationship with them the

Myanmar and China had signed the Treaty of friendship and non-aggression in 1954 and China is the myanmar’s largest trading partner as well as the arm supplier to all the three arm Navy Air Force of Myanmar China is you all are aware constructing the China Myanmar economic Corridor which under which oil and gas

Pipeline from chaku to Kunming has already been completed apart from this there are number of infrastructure development project production hubs and and construction of special economic zones oil and gas exploration uh activities in which China is investing heavily in Myanmar China is also involved uh in

Myanmar and and it has helped out by leveraging by leveraging its vetto power in Union Security Council and supporting the Myanmar army during various resolutions against the military rule in 1988 in 2008 2017 and recently in 2021 as well and China calls its relation with Myanmar as poow which means Blood Brothers

Apart from this even during the recent military action there are some reports that China has helped Myanmar with manpow and technology for information Warfare and cyber warfare I don’t know how far it is true but it has been reported widely by certain media in addition to that China’s involvement in construction of military

Infrastructure it extends to the myanmar’s western coast where it is constructing a submarine base at omun Island which is close to sit sit is where the start point of our cadal multimodal transmit point is as also its involvement in Koko Island which is close to our andan and nicobar group of

Islands is an area of concern to all of us and countering India’s offer of a submarine to Myanmar China has also recently offered to mink class submarines to Myanmar additionally like I had mentioned earlier U mymar is an all-time consumer of China’s military hardware for all its Army Navy and Air Force

However uh the the relationship between China and Myanmar is not that all you know hky Dory there are a lot of Flip Side to it as well and to some it seems to be a relation of more of a conveniences than anything else and more of economic in nature uh the word

Traditionally used for Chinese people in Myanmar is called too which means Coast so that’s the word the traditionally the Myanmar is use when they refer to the Chinese and fundamentally I’m told I’ve been given to understand that the Myanmar people are very very wary of the Chinese they are not very clear about

What their aims and objectives are but we are aware that the isolation and various sanction by Western democracies have actually put china put Myanmar in China’s lab that is something we need to be conscious of and uh there are some projects in Myanmar of China which has not been

Looked at positively by the manmar population we all are familiar that the Minon Dam project which was the largest dam project that was crapped during the rule of the nld then the L Pang copper mine project which also caught the air of the locals and so large scale protest by the

Myanmar population as well while on the Chinese side also so they have been blaming the Myanmar yunta who have been encouraging and patronizing these cyber crime syndicates which are operating in areas close to the soo Myanmar border and China has constructed 2,000 kilomet of high-tech wire fencing along

The border with Myanmar which has become a point of contention between the Myanmar military rulers and the Chinese and the spillover of the fighting of the ethnic arm groups and the military Myanmar Army has also been represented repeatedly by the Chinese delegation in fact I was told that an

Exercise was carried out by Chinese pla along the borders of Myanmar during the month of 20 November 23 uh to to to try and prevent any sort of spillover of the infighting within the Myanmar in the Border areas however it is also seen that post 2021 coup the anti-chinese sentiments have

You know increased mostly among the pro National Unity government uh supporters that is a feeling which I got recently uh in one of the visits I had interacted with some of the uh business uh communities who are based at Myanmar both Indian as well as Nationals of other communities there is an increasing

Anti-chinese sort of feeling among the among the elite of the Myanmar as well and uh the the we all are aware that Chinese infrastructure as also the factories have also been targeted by the PDF in the recent turmoil which has been going on in Myanmar now I’ll come on to the indom

And Myanmar relationship that’s the topic of the day uh I will not touch upon lot of most of the informed audience is generally aware of what the trajectory has been as far as the Indo Myanmar relation is concerned uh it is based on hisor hisorical cultural traditional and ethnic

Linkages and uh we both of both the countries were ruled by the British as I had mentioned earlier uh the along the border which was the artificial border created between India and Myanmar when the British left it divided lot of people of the similar ethnicities in nagaland Manipur and mizoram so that

Created that problem because of which that free moove regime had to be brought about which allows people to crossover within 6 6 kilomet of the Indo Myanmar border with head loads and that also that the fmr has traditionally been exploited by all the armed groups as also anti-national elements on both

Sides for all types of illegal activities whether it is move of the Armed groups or gun illegal gun running or narcotic trading uh there are several treaties and agreements between India and Myanmar which guide both the countries to try and work together and Myanmar is the fourth largest trading partner for India

And for ACT policy and neighborhood first policy I think Myanmar becomes the key as far as the gateway to the southeast Asia is concerned any sort of Indian interest towards the southeast Asia has to Transit through Myanmar so that’s in our interest that we are able to look at Myanmar from a different

Perspective uh traditionally we have been a firm supporter of democracy in Myanmar but at the same time have also been engaging and maintaining a some sort of friendly relationship with the Myanmar Army as well so how far we can go along with this Balancing Act given the present Dynamics that’s a question I

Think we need to ask ourself uh we also do have substantive investment in Myanmar which are getting being impacted because of the adverse security situation and the internal turmoil within Myanmar the kaladan multimodal transit transport project uh which is then the 1360 kilom long Indo manmar Thailand trilateral Highway oil

Refinery project at Yun are some of these notable projects in which we have made substantial investment the kaladan project had made certain uh grounds but uh after 2021 again it has uh the whole construction work has stopped in fact when our go3 core at that point of time

Through Juran Pui we had made specific effort to ensure that the road up to paletwa is constructed and and I think 16 km of the road had started the work but thereafter the uh coup happened and then that also came to a stand still I

Am told it was given to one of the Myanmar concerns by the uh by the Indian company that was iron that was working on that but that has also stopped so all these are this present situation is adversely impacting on these infrastructure project which we had taken on

Uh so what is the present situation in Myanmar Ambassador mupad had already covered I think there is complete instability with me part of the real estate not under control of the Myanmar Army uh it’s only the major cities and towns probably that are under control of the Myanmar Army and certain cantonments

And military camps large camps but mainly the the rural areas where the population is even within the bamar population majority population are not under the control of the Myanmar Army so that is the ground state as far as overall Myanmar is concerned now if we

Take our uh this thing to the Shan state in the along the soo Myanmar border majority of the towns even within the Border next to the Border has been captured by the three Brotherhood Alliance and that has really impacted the the situation in those areas uh if we see even in the arakan

Army has also captured paletwa and I’m told they’re just about 20 kilomet away from sit where Myanmar Army is still there so uh in majority of the places the Myanmar Army has actually surrendered in most of the places they have either surrendered they have joined hands with the PDF or the ethnic arm

Groups or in some of the places close to the Indo Myanmar border they have crossed over to Indian side to seek refuge and you have heard in the media reports that number of them were then repatriated through the moru Border areas so there is a total sort of instability

As far as Myanmar is concerned I was I recently met a businessman who is based at Yangon he he told me that he had some 600 acres of some cultivation and one day one son of the uh one of the military leader General he just came there and he said okay it’s

Mine so he says go how going take it 600 acres of cultivated land as yours he says no it’s mine I have said that it’s mine that means it’s mine so that’s the sort of you know you know just to the Light Side that’s the sort of you know

Ground situation in Myanmar where nobody is sure and there is lot of apprehension among the business Community who are based at Yun about the future of businesses in Myanmar as well some things which I uh want to bring about is uh what Ambassador mupad had mentioned that we must look at is

What is going to be the future of Myanmar even if there there is a Reconciliation between the fighting groups the pro-democratic forces as well as the Myanmar Army will they be able to reconcile even if they come into some agreement how will they coexist coexist because for the nation to uh Prosper it

Is extremely important that any sort of democratic setup which comes into uh Power in Myanmar has to rely on the Myanmar Army whether to control the ethnic c groups or to ensure security stability in the country whether they will be able to put together those sort of a Reconciliation effort that is

Something which we need to see how they will coexist these three important stakeholders the government in power the Myanmar Army as also this ethnic armed organization how they are going to coexist in the new formulation of the power sharing or governance whatever comes about through a process of reconciliation that’s the biggest

Question I think which remains in everybody’s mind there are also reports that there are internal features within the Myanmar Army as well there are a lot of people who are against the senior uh General Mong Le and they’re questioning his policies and there are people in favor

Of reconciliation with the nugs so these internal features were never heard of before earlier within man Mar Army that is an issue I’m not very sure about how far it is true but there are it has been widely reported by the media the fourth military conscription has also created

Lot of tension within the Myanmar societies as well there is a huge queue of people who are trying to flee and go across to Thailand uh I have already discussed about the soo Myanmar border areas uh the situation along the Indo Myanmar border I’m sure uh

D Assam Rael would like to cover it in detail and we take it up during The Question Answer session I think that I leave it for that um but only couple of things which I want to mention is about the situation in Manipur which I think has been

Excitated because of the instability in Myanmar uh these the Manipur issues we can discuss we discuss that in the panel discussion that will be much much more lively that is something which I leave Manipur and that IMB I leave for the there are certain things which had uh I thought that

U I’ll make certain recommendations before I end my uh talk and we can discuss the other issues uh uh during the panel discussion uh while it may not be prudent for us to take sides in the internal strife but uh some something as a regional power I think we need to use

All our leverages whatever leverage we have to initiate a peace Mission I think we need to facilitate as a as a regional part a dialogue between all the stakeholders uh whatever leverages India has or various personalities within India have must be used to start the dialogue all these three stakeholders

Must come into some sort of a dialogue table unless that happens the instability will remain we also need to engage with all the stakeholders to ensure security for all our infrastructure projects which are going on in Myanmar and we also need to take a lead I think in the international forums to

End the isolation and sanction of sanction against Myanmar because the more Myanmar gets isolated by the International Community the more closer it gets toward Chinese which is not in our interest at all uh then uh as far as the Border management is concerned I think the Border management needs to be made more

Robust we need to develop the requisite infrastructure which is in terms of border fencing or techn technologically developed uh surveillance devices we need to have a more robust border mechanis border management mechanism the strength along the IND mymar border needs to be increased there has been certain decisions which were taken at

Some point of time which were pended I think there is a requirement of more number of Assam rifle battalions to be able to deployed in to manage the Indo mymar Border in in a desired manner in addition to that we have already heard about the evolution of the free move

Regime which has been announced by the government uh this needs to be done because uh all these armed groups have been taking making use of this free move regime to cross over on both sides very very easily with all the problem associated with it the border fencing must be completed alongside that the

Infrastructure close to the Border areas must also be completed in in at an early time frame alongside the development along the Indo Myanmar border it is also important to integrate those areas within which are part of India particularly I’m talking about South arunachal Pradesh nagaland Manipur and mizoram their integration with our

National mainstream must be completed and for that to happen peace and stability is the prerequisite and alongside that we need to ensure infrastructure development and investment in these border areas so that people enjoy the fruits of peace and development which they see in the mainland which is not happening in those

Outlet L border areas I think with that I have come to the end of my uh schedule talk thank you sir ladies and Gentlemen We Now open the floor for panel discussion chaired by Ambassador gam mukad please feel free to ask your questions s switch on the switch on the

Mic yeah yeah okay uh well first of all uh a very big thanks and compliments to General Kalita and general N I think between them we have a totally comprehensive presentation on both the Myanmar situation or how it impacts on India as well as a number of recommendations views from a vantage

Point that I could not think could be better at all uh along with the sort of comprehensive nature of their talks I think we’ve also had very very very interesting insights and uh if I were to start I mean I must say that they have thrown up a very large number of

Questions but I’ve had my say and I would like to begin by in fact opening the floor uh two questions to either of our two primary panelists uh and in case uh there is something addressed to me I’m sure with General duan’s uh permission I could also address yes and

If there is any time left then of course I would like to throw up my own sure sir sure sir so uh CL yeah so the floor is open uh I invite speakers please identify yourself and keep your questions as short as possible comments are also welcome by

The way yeah please go ahead at the back the the situ gone down so far that it yeah sir I recommend the I recommend sir all three of you can respond to the question depending on the Comfort level and the experience so since he’s asked a question related to your uh

Your statement it would be better that you respond sir thank you well thank you for the question yeah actually we are presented with a uh with two equally bad choices uh we have a situation that is already bad and to me is irreversible one of the characteristics of this

Conflict is that now the Myanmar Army is plainly resorting to uh use of indiscriminate Force by and large air power artillery power their ground troops have depleted Des erted have become demoralized they are not being able to recruit Fresh So if I look at it in terms of a kind of longer term

Perspective I see the Hun losing ground and essentially ending up let’s say by the end of this year or by the middle of next year as a kind of rump Garrison State uh with very little actually uh ability to do anything on the ground except fight and in fighting they are

Resorting to the technique of essentially attacking civilians in order to build pressure on the ethnic resistance organizations not to pursue their attacking policy so this is one uh the second is the probability of an incomplete Nation I talked about 1948 I talked about the appropriation of the independence movement its Monopoly by

The military uh that in many ways Myanmar is an incomplete Nation to the extent that there is a nation it’s largely a BMA Nation the ethnic forces represented in Myanmar are are not uh in very very well integrated uh and there is a very strong pharus tendency now the

Likelihood is one I said and we should not be surprised or or frightened about the prospect of vulcanization in some ways we should uh for other reasons but you know vulcanization has happened in our time the former Yugoslavia has cracked up the former Soviet Union has cracked up and there are other states

That could be incoming and my immediate comparison is with uh uh with these two and Myanmar is likely to go in that direction it’s not necessary that they’ll become separate states de facto and dejur States but it’s very likely that it will be a virtual fragmentation with even possibly enclaves not even

States in fact the PDFs are fighting as in the form of townships and this is not unusual you know in Myanmar history apart from the periods of Imperial power which were basically three uh the rest of the time the country has been small small statelets and States so

We have presented with the prospect the danger is that such a situation will be totally cannibalized I mean it will be an open field for China to cannibalize Myanmar uh particularly on the Eastern side but even more now in these situ in this situation what are the options that

You have the only other option and the large majority of Myanmar ethnic Armed Forces are not looking for Independence I think the arakan Army is but many others are not they looking for autonomy they’re looking for a federal Democratic Union and I feel that even though a federal Democratic Union has a poor

Chance it is a better chance than the current Trend which is to try to keep the country together by force which is already failing in fact we have three years to recognize the signs uh we did not recognize the signs in 2021 it happened but today with about 60 % of

The country or more outside their hands I think the trend is very clear the only question is whether it will happen in 2024 or longer so I think we have between two bad choices uh in my view and of course Others May def uh that it

Is more uh prudent to of course you know we cannot switch from one day to another we have to keep our relations with both sides very likely there is a possibility that there may be a split within the Myanmar Army also some section may like

To go hard some section may like to uh go towards some kind of reconciliation the overall thing is my reading is that the opposition forces today will not accept a military Le future for Myanmar the military has to step back and take a you know an important role and again this is

Important because we cannot have a situation like Iraq where the Myanmar Army which is the only institution other than the new Parliament that has been in power for 70 years can just disintegrate and leave a total vacuum in its place so it’s in our interest also to preserve a

Strong role for the military within a United and probably Democratic Myanmar sir I would like to just add a rejoinder to it in the sense that J ner gave a statement a little contrary to what you have said so I would like to seek the views of n as well as to you

Know he said that he has firm belief and faith in the Tad to come out Victors as far as this particular situation is concerned so could you just uh you know U my hypothesis Remains the Same sir doesn’t change um and I’ll give you reasons for that firstly let’s talk of I’ll just

Talk of all the actors who are involved in this the ethnic armed groups themselves uh Ambassador mad himself said there is no coherent fighting that is happening between them each of them traditionally like it’s happened from their time of Independence they’re only looking at their pockets of interest and that is

How it will continue to be the second player the nug which get hyped a lot many people say it’s it’s an organization which is more in the cyber world than it is on ground because of the fact that the Manar comes down very heavily on them so there’s no Collective

Organization there’s no government while there are political players but again there is no coherence amongst them third of course uh is Myanmar Army how it is different from the other armies in the neighborhood is like again Ambassador mad told you they had a very great role

To play in nation building from the very beginning uh it all started with the burmes independence Army it was something like our Ina created by the Japanese the same uh Burmese Independence Army later on became man armed army and then they took control in 62 and after 62 there’s

Been no looking back despite the small periods of democracy and despite the 2008 Constitution which is still in existence uh so the country at large has been looking at them at least the bomber people have been looking at them as people who are looking after the sovereignty Integrity

Stability of the country no matter what the youth feels uh there are actions happening against them but I don’t think it’ll last long but most important player of course in all this is China uh we spoke of the 1643 km please don’t forget China has 2,480 kilm of

Border which is even more than us the cmech China Myanmar economic order has to run through for its since brought this question up the two ocean policy uh for it Myanmar is very very essential cek on that side CCH here they have to get into these you’ll understand

This better as a Navy person so no matter what uh China will continue to wield influence over this there will be small nudges like uh what’s happening on the Chinese border now but these are all temporary I think U China thinks longterm and their influence will be much

Greater we can go ahe to the next question I think the lady out there Um I spoke about the groups that are there on the Yan border the uh Chinese are doing a dual play I mentioned that while some of these groups are um being funded by China but there are other things also at play here there’s lot of illegal gambling uh smuggling weapon trading

That’s happening here which China has been in some way telling Myanmar to cut down but Myanmar really doesn’t have influence over those areas as much as the Chinese have so while China’s funding them China also wants a hedge over thead and the hedge or pressure tactics

Can only be done if the tamada is on the back foot on this border which is what it is doing now but this will not continue for long at some point when China feels that uh Myanmar Army will not be able to sustain this there will be a change in

Fact uh the first ceas fire with the three Brotherhood Alliance which didn’t last was also broken by China so that’s a clear sign of the fact that China will come into play whenever they feel that something needs to be addressed here that’s my take so I agree with General n that China is

Having a dual policy but I would also say that if there is one country in the world that has kept China off balance uh it is Myanmar and the Chinese are also grouping the Chinese may not be a benign player for us in fact let’s assume that

They are a malign player but they are a rational State actor and they have their interests uh strategic interests in Myanmar and economic interests in Myanmar they also have extremely good relations even though they are with tamado through the party and other kind of ethnic circuits they have extremely good

Relations with the nug they are talking to the nug they’re also talking to they many of the ethnic armed groups are in fact under their strong influence the W the mongla the M andda are particularly strong because at least two of them are ethnically Chinese but even the Kia the

Tnla and arakan armi was virtually incubated by the Kia uh and close to that side so they are also under their influence China of course it its primary interest is stability and for that stability they have also maybe like us dependent on the Myanmar Army to guarantee and preserve

That stability but if Myanmar goes downwards then you can be sure they are best position to very uh to be uh to be nimble and to switch sides uh anytime and it’s very interesting right now the arakan is actually in an offensive position on ramri island where the chofu

Base is there’s probably no spot in Myanmar that is more important than jofu and the Chinese are not stopping the arakan Army their own prot from going ahead with this so yeah first preference of China is a United Burma and I think in that area in that front there is a

There’s a platform for a dialogue but if it does not go according to their wishes they are capable of making agreements with the uh with the forces that are at their border as well as with the Bas as well as with the arakan and they well positioned unfortunately we have not

Taken such Pro proactive steps we should have seen this coming and we should have done it long back yes sir uh I’m M chakti and I’ve seen the tat at very close quarters was posted in Vietnam now being a Diplomat in Vietnam as a colonel I was surprised normally the ambassador’s

Office and the chancell are much bigger but I found the da to be having a much bigger office than the Ambassador ambassadors to take orders from the da there’s nothing happening now this was extremely strange for me and I was quite close to the P Chinese and everybody and even I didn’t

Find the Chinese this thing I only saying one thing I think I agree with General n you can keep getting onen sui and everybody else but the Tatum do is not prepared to compromise its position whether in terms of golf courses in terms of hotels in terms of

Everything once an army I mean they got an army Commander Eastern command sitting here I saw him play golf in goti after his retirement with talukdar Brigadier talukdar please he should he should like to what you call I got a photo on my WhatsApp that he didn’t goti but if you see the

Tatam all there they got a lot of property in the United States Brigadier mtin was the da and I’m telling you he had every had property in every country what are we and I think we did the wisest thing on earth I don’t want to

Open up what we did but I was in Northern command and we gave them everything which is supposed to be given to get them on our side and we gave them the Weaponry I mean say very much against the Indian army saying that can we Face Pakistan I was at a very

Responsible position I don’t want to open up the point I’m getting it is that even what you call she is the daughter of General long I mean to say whether you take on sin see so I’d like to ask the DG Assam rifles who really positioned over there my

Schoolmate do you think there is any alternative but for this Army all these groups are fighting so many people keep fighting we have fights all over the world everywhere we have got killings in the US got Army Commander Eastern Commander I’m from Kolkata I mean there’s so many things happening do you

Mean to say that anybody can replace the Tatam do I wrote an article on Tatam do for the vi long ago and it was a prediction most powerful force believe me I think it got the maximum hits I’ve ever got on any issue it’s so powerful a

Force that culturally it is accepted by everybody and I think India also accepted it what is why all of a sudden are we suddenly taken a stand where the Chinese have got the upper hand can you just tell me sir thank you sir I think

Uh uh you have U laid out a proposition which is possibly possibly rooted in the experience which you had in Vietnam but let’s see um what is the current Dynamics and uh the panelist general Kalita can actually throw a light on it he has been generally quiet so let’s

Let’s see what he has to say on this possibly the Myanmar Army was powerful Once Upon a Time if I may say so what has happened is possibly in the hierarchy in the top hierarchy maybe thinking something else or enunciating certain other policy but if you you see

What’s happening on ground is totally different the the Myanmar Army units at the Tactical level are disintegrating they Whenever Wherever in the places they under attack either they have surrendered or joined hands with the PDF or the ethnic armed groups or have sought refuge in Thailand or in

India and then thereafter they have gone back the condition in which they had come to come across in Manipur and mizoram is pathetic I don’t think any army survival can depend on such poorly motivated and poorly trained soldiers that is a question which I want to raise

Having seen the on ground situation as of now sir what was happening earlier probably is a different situation sir what is the thinking in Yangon or Napa maybe different but what’s happening closer to the borders whether in Border along the China or along the India manm border where they’re under threat under

Attack is totally different so their survival I would agree with Ambassador mupad is a question mark unless they come into some agreement which they have been following all these years they come into some agreement with some other some of these ethnic arm groups align themselves and get over that immediate

Problem and then thereafter they go into some other agreement or some other arrangements so that’s something which we’ll have to see but on ground their condition is not very good one sort of sentence to this you know uh I was in the east Europe division of the ministry of external

Affairs when the Soviet Union woke up and there was a kind of almost uh I would say psychological resistance to the idea that the Soviet Union that we depended upon so much could ever that the Communist Party could ever lose power and the the Soviet Union could

Ever uh disintegrate it was just not something in the realm of imagination we could not allow ourselves that I think we are in that kind of moment in uh in in Myanmar and you know in many of these units that I agree with both General dant and general Kalita some of these

Units are now being you know they are composed and even headed by not infantry Fighters they’re being headed by medical people signals people you know and they’ve just literally been cobbled together out of residual forces brought from here and there how do you expect them to fight faced with a an opposition

They’ll they’ll they’ll give up and uh you know you are all from the Army you know that however much air power you have however much artillery you have finally you need those ground forces and those ground forces are literally uh fizzling out so I think that’s what I

Think I think so you hit the nail on the head if you see the Russia Ukraine war is war also that’s actually suffering more because of the boots on ground you have pmcs getting into into the fighting we have two questions from our right flank yeah naan you want to speak

Iations on India okay I I was thought of uh coming to you at the end you know so so you know you you can sum up the and and and and make my concluding remarks that much easier okay yeah let’s give a chance to the youngsters they are

They they are the scholars out here so let’s see what do you have to say yeah go ahead two points or two questions one is that if there is going to be a negotiated or some form of a negotiated settlement what is it that the T can offer the

E because whatever they have offered was part of the 2007 Constitution or the 9697 where they made some of the EOS into and now that the EA have actually controlled and creating a situation where other countries have directly negotiate with them at a formal level arm saying that we interested in the mul

Is the of saying that what recogniz we will keep the project running second is that what is the level of internal C among the E are they capable of running one of modern day state in the they second are they capable of maintaining peace among themselves

Instead of going back to what we saw in Afghanistan postra where the were fighting each other and gave to the and it is not a right example but this thank you yes so negotiated settlement uh I think one of the question has talked about how uncompromising and rigid the tamado is I

Think that is right uh I see the chances of a negotiated settlement very very slim uh almost negligible the gap between the two is uh uh unbridgeable uh there can be no conversation with the ethnic with the nug or with the ethnic armed organizations that recognizes the 2008

Constitution and the Army is not going to give up that position so I think the chances of a negotiated settlement are uh uh Next To None uh which is why I say that but on the other hand uh however fractious the ethnic arm the the opposition may be and there are big

Differences between particularly the nug dominated by the nld and by the nuc which is the national Union consultative commission uh commiss uh consultative Council which consists of the basically the the uh uh you know uh all the resistance forces civilians csos labor groups etc etc Etc uh but what they have

Done the nug and the nuc and the other forces they have all agreed on a Federal Union charter oh so this is a major step even if we may doubt whether it will succeed and I also have questions whether they will succeed at least they have are agreed on a Federal Union

Charter what they don’t want is the domination of a single bumma leader like Onan they want to think in terms of a collective leadership a collective leadership idea has never worked anywhere it is very unlikely to work here these are the probabilities that we face and so that the question of

Internal cohesion you know the reality is that in many of these areas particularly if you’re talking about the ethnics they have been governing for a long time so what can the tamado give them the tamado can give them uh firstly a federal union secondly equality as uh

You know as entities within Myanmar but most of all they can make a de facto reality a J reality and uh there is not they’re not going to surrender the past that they have already enjoyed and they are capable of uh Administration uh in fact the arakan army or rather through

Their proxies is already virtually governing the ruling administering including J you know uh justice uh in the areas that they already occupy so I wouldn’t put it beyond the realm of uh imagination there is at least some degree of majority amongst the opposition as well and at tough times

You know people do come up with uh options it has happened in the past also uh we have one more question from the lady out here and then uh we will go to Nan after that yeah anurada she is incidentally from Manipur so she’ll she just come back from

Manipur so hopefully she’ll bring some question which is of interest to us vage in District of so by giving this side now can of the town so given you know this two situation and given you know those cultur aity having you know between these people what do you see I mean how what

Is your proposal you know completely ofy is the best choice or we need to rine in the days to come so second question is I or this is the question and second isation have and but situation happen in the supp comes from so how do you see is there any you

Know uh I don’t know how how are you looking at the situation Andra I’ll take on both questions of yours first you spoke of this cultural affinity fmr and views on fmr the government has already given its uh directives of what they have the plans that are in place to scrap it so uh I don’t know what you mean by how do I

Redefine this but in terms of uh looking at it from the people who are there I told you subnationalism is very rif it was it is there and it’ll remain for some time and uh even if the fmr gets crapped and this fence gets made it’s

Not going to happen very soon you know the territory there you know how difficult it is my understanding dgb is here it’ll take nothing less than a decade minimum to erect this smart both in physical and um smart form the second is about the refugee influx that the figures that I showed

You U now let’s go a little in the past people have been because of the free move regime people have been Mis utilizing this free move regime not just in Manipur but across uh we know of cases where children come and stay for they do their complete um studies in schools they come

For supposed to come for 14 days but they stay on for years together while we as a border guarding Force try and maintain records of people coming in or going back we have no control over what to do they don’t there are uh just along the entire Indo Myanmar border of 1643

Km how many police stations are there you know there 2020 or we there uh it’s difficult but uh what I’m trying to allude to is the fact that for decades people have been coming it’s not something that has happened overnight first particularly after 1 February 2021 I showed you those figures where I

Showed you there is a variance because people who are going back are now being counted situation in Myanmar in Manipur I totally agree with the Ambassador mukad it’s not as alarming as is seen to be and I’ve given this to you by fact of those people who came to Kam

Jong about 5,000 of them about th000 out have gone back 1,000 plus have gone back and it’s a thing which keeps happening often so there the figure remains about 3,800 in kamjong area rest of Manipur where you talk of chur chanur chandel all together our understanding is that

There are not more than a thousand close to th000 in fact lesser than thousand yes just two points one is fmr you know fmr when it was started that time it was needed and if you look at the various provision it is very enabling Provisions but what has

Happened over the years is it has been mized people have not utilized it in the manner in it in which it was envisioned that is the problem and even now the free move regime if it is properly monitored it Still Remains an enabling provision because of the

People of same ethnicity living on both sides of the Border but this has been misused by the armed groups as also for the people who are carrying out this narcotics trading that is one point and second issue is about this Refugee what’s happening is we are confusing between the refugees actual refugees and

The armed groups which are moving in you know the majority of the people who are coming in are refugees who have been displaced because of the fighting in the Myanmar close to the borders they have been displaced and majority of them go back some of them of course have

Migrated to the Interiors to the interland because of the livelihood and the other issues but those refugees are harmless the problem creators are those armed groups which are there whether it is the valy based inent groups which are scamed in Myanmar they come they are coming and taking part in all these

Violent activities which is taking pain in Manipur even on the other side even the K barma cooki National Army barma which is based at Myanmar they are also participating mostly there are allegation that they’re involved in the violent activities which took place in the last month in

Mo and the surrounding areas so we have to distinguish between the genuine refugees and the armed groups which come and see who all are involved and in creating the instability in those areas Yan your turn my friends there keep talking different voices if you talk to nag or you talk too then they

Haveing is need my point here I just want to flag it here the government needs to be little more proactive talking about subnationalism being r on the on the border that might just get more accentuated or more it will get more prominence and a boost if you do

Offens that’s a counterintuitive kind of a point that I’m try to make here and therefore uh you know the government needs to have all comprehensive policy to uh let people know why the fencing is com why the free movement regime is going to be scrapped otherwise there’s lot of misinformation

Misconception and then this can be used by the Insurgent groups to create problems as it is there are enough problems in the Northeast in in that area going create more problems if this information of the perception management is not handled properly and that’s something that I think all of us must

Take that’s what I want to uh I think uh that’s uh that’s rightly said but uh we are running out of time now uh what we will do is uh we also have audience online and there are two questions which we have filtered out of those questions

Which the audience have been giving one is from J Sharma so we will take these two questions and then I’ll reques uh your pardon for concluding this particular session because we already gone beyond our 12:00 deadline the first question is by JN Sharma for DG DG AR okay

Uh please 20 State uh please do state about the situation in Manipur with ar being at the receiving end wasn’t The sixo Oath by MPS mlas in infal in January 2024 a pathetic idea uh this question in fact both I would address it to DJ as well as to Ambassador gutam

Madya and to also to the Army Comm former Army Commander General Kalita because all three have been actually affected by this uh somewhere or the other because he had just left I think he would left about 10 15 days back when this particular thing happened so first

We’ll start with DJ then Ambassador and J Kalita quickly um yes we have been at the um fourfront which is why we have been at the receiving end also now a lot of the narratives that have come in the National media are false uh agenda driven and really don’t

Give a true picture of the happenings there I will just like to tell you one issue which you must understand perhaps this will send a message across we have troops there in which we have people from both communities there surely we can’t be seen as being partial to one at

The cost of other if it was the case we would have had uh you know what I don’t have to spell it out you would have a serious state of unrest within our Battalion but it is the hard work being done by our commanding officers and cosos they’ve kept them together made

Them understand and we are being absolutely neutral so when you uh put yourself in between a fight when one Community is going to attack the other and if we arrest them we stop them from going obviously the narrative that gets painted is against us we are okay with

It because we are doing a job and I’ve mentioned this in uh many interviews bad press doesn’t really affect us we’ll continue to sold on continue to do uh what is happening what the politicians do you spoke of this 24th January incident it’s it’s a political decision

It’s at the local level we have nothing to do with it it doesn’t change our methodology of operation that’s thank you um I’m a little out of my depth in this question but let me answer it as a citizen not as a diplomat now I I I thought you should we should

Get the uh you know the civilian perspective as well so before I come to that um you know in response to what um nithan just pointed out I’d like to sort of draw the attention of all those who are interested here to an online artic actually it was print as well as online

Uh that I wrote in the dean Herald on February the 3D uh which looks very closely at this fmr and border fencing issue of course from a critical point of view and one of the points that has by by and large escaped a lot of attention

And if you allow me to please elaborate is that U you know uh the British were the first to draw a line between India and Myanmar uh starting from 1886 with some variations that has carried on until now but they knew that if they actually tried to enforce it as a hard

Frontier which they did in some other places they would invite trouble so they kind of wisely left this to be open and in a way that was the wisdom that under which the Burma new independent Burma also acted when they had their Burmese passport rules in 1948 they left open

The fmr the Indian passport rules of 1950 left open the fmr and the 2018 agreement again lots of variations basically just codified and rationalized harmonized it restricted it a little taking into consideration security and other concerns and made it 16 km in sort of let’s say 40 km as it was earlier now

One of the problems that we should be aware of and this has very much to do with the argument that was made by General ner is that the people on the border areas and I would say most of all the nagas they have kind of never accepted this line to the extent extent

That they have accepted it it has been under the understanding that the FM will not be not be changed but if you start imposing a hard Frontier including border fening uh the sentiment of population being divided is so strong that uh from both sides people will even question that border the

Entire boundary line will be questioned by people from this side saying no our boundaries extend up to the chindwin and people from other side claiming their boundaries may be extending to to this side so this is something really worrying second a point on this whole migration thing you know the line came

In 1826 and we are trying to make it a hard Frontier in 2024 but historically for 2,000 years people have moved back and forth and the fmr regime has actually allowed people to come study here go back maybe work here for a season go back it has not

Compelled them to choose between this side and that side in fact if you see the border on Manipur on the other side the kabo valley the kabo valley is in the plains it is far more prosperous than the the hills on on this side so why would people actually leave that

They would leave that because there is more development health education other facilities on this side uh so in fact if you again drew a line what will happen is people will exercise their choice and migrate which they are not doing right now right now it’s a kind of floating population that has happened

Historically uh on your point about the general sharma’s point about January 24th honestly uh this may be an over statement and I could be guilty of that but what happened on January 24th I compare with a hypothetical situation when General bendan was in the golden temple if General bendan had called all

The MPS and mlas of Punjab and issued a six-point oath based on the khalistani agenda whatever that may be and the government not even and the government representatives of mha being present there on the spot and simply not reacting to that virtual Insurrection and taking over the state by a militant

Armed organization that should have been banned from the beginning uh but has been allowed free play and if the government is happy with that well who am I to complain but uh I I think we should understand that there’s there are comparable situations and its implications would be equally serious yeah General

Kalas yeah I would like to comment on that Assam rle being the favorite punching bag as far as Manipur is concerned but uh that’s because of the sustain narrative that is being thrown driven by one particular side of the conflict which we all are aware of uh

But uh since I was the Army Commander that during that point of time and I I distinctly remember that on 3rd of May it was because of the Assam rifles that we are able to save thousands of life people tend to forget the number of lives that was saved the M population

Which were evacuated from Mo and from chura chanur under extremely difficult and challenging environment and vice versa the cookie population which were who were evacuated from heart of impal taken to the various camps and then thereafter transported to safer areas so those are the things which are forgotten

About you know because of that narrative which is being driven by one particular side of the conflict uh me and ner spent a lot of time during that period after third of May and I had interacted with uh people from both sides including the most active Mira babies I had a sitting

With them for almost 6 hours there are about 50 of mea babies who came and question me on the similar subject what we are talking about now that why it is that Assam rifal is taking side in the conflict so I told them to narrate give out the incidents which they wanted uh

Which they were quoting and I gave them the counter side of that particular incident and what they had interpreted and what actually on ground had happened was entirely different and after 6 hours I was able to even convince all those Mira babies that the narrative that they have been hearing in

The media or what their perception is about the situation was not correct and similarly we also had interaction with the cookie and as well as the ITF and the various cookie groups their side of the story was totally different so it is based on the narrative that is

Being driven I think and I would stand by the neutrality of the Assam rifle I think they have done a tremendous job at the ground level at the Tactical level the various commanders and the soldiers on ground have faced extremely difficult situation while managing the situation there uh thank you very much General

Kalita in fact we also have the second question but in some way or the other it has been answered by all of you I’ll just read the question so that all of you are aware as to what riia Sharma had asked we must not underplay the situation limited recruitment for tamada

It controls largely iradi River 60% with Rebel groups 70% of our borders are with TBA arakan Army seeks vast sums in kaladan project if TBA establishes independent state on our borders how should we respond is fence a feasibility with mizoram government and kooki resist distance so in some form or the other I

Think we have answered this question but if you would still like to add some final comment to it I request any of the panelists to do so just one statement unrelated to the question I fully endorse I think the uh the the you know the ringing uh appreciation for theam rifles and the

Indian army in the current situation uh in in Manipur honestly but for them Bloodshed would have been much greater yeah and we still hear you know in the media people talking about replacing a samul etc I think we should not uh go by what is printed everything in the media

We should go by and that’s is why I thought of calling the DG Asam rifle to give out the correct perspective on this particular issue uh with that uh I would like to thank the uh panelist our esteemed guests and all of you out here uh for a lively discussion due to short

Shortage of time we could not take more questions I’m sure I had myself about five six questions I would also like to thank DG VR uh who uh before I thank and I think he should make a comment on the fencing because that was one thing which

I was uh expecting a very detailed question on the feasibility from the point of view of physical construction of the fencing in this particular area uh thank you sir uh I’m grateful for being given an opportunity for which I am uh not exactly prepared so uh now uh in as much that I

Drawn uniform and I’m regularly used to being ambushed uh very clearly the Border has been defined as approximately 1600 odd kilm there is going to be approximately 300 km which is terrain wise noo there will be about approximately 1300 km of fence which has been divided into hard

Fence as we have seen and some of it will be a hybrid surveillance system and some of it will be a surveillance system so if we are talking of exactly uh looking at a wall that is not what is the plan in the present context uh the question is is it

Feasible yes it’s feasible but it will have extreme challenges that is very rightly brought out by the DJ Assam rifles we are not looking at it uh being done uh rapidly uh I mean the models that we have are the IB fence the LC fence and now we have the Indo Myanmar

Border fence the challenges of the indom Myanmar border fence apart from the security challenges are those of extremely hostile terrain the vagaries of weather and uh the fact that we have no uh almost at most places we have no approach roads uh which will actually come in over there so I think the

Process will involve uh uh getting approach points move move of stores along induction lines because as anyone would understand the last habitation really speaking where roads exist can uh vary from uh 10 kilm in uh Manipur to approximately 70 odd kilometers in arunachal Pradesh so this is uh what we

Are looking at we’re not I’m not even talking on something which I shouldn’t be commenting on which is an adverse security or political situation which which which may uh come across but the fact is will it get constructed yes it will get constructed we quite certain

About that that given our you know the thought that we need to do it uh the impetus which is being given uh the resources which are being applied uh in due course uh this will come about I think from what I have gained from the sense of what everyone else is speaking

Is that it is required uh because there there will be a point in time where uh we have seen uh what I’ve learned is that the fmr is being uh brutally abused and uh it has created and will create uh in the future more uh problems then uh you know we can

Um bury our head in this hand and say that uh we shouldn’t do anything and we should uh ler Fair leave things alone but uh I think a decision has been taken and many people who have been there agree with this that there is a there is

Reason enough to harden uh this uh make an application that what are the uh you know sovereignty Sovereign borders of the country thank you thank you panelist for an insightful and a very engaging session and thank you audience both online and who are present here for your questions may I

Now request director General Claus to kindly deliver his closing remarks and vote of thanks uh thank you shya and uh thank you the panelists it had been a very uh Lively discussion good presentations uh but at the end of the day I think I’m left with more questions than answers I

Think that’s the uh net sum of today’s discussion uh but uh definitely it has done something uh in our minds and that is as the Ambassador had said the amesia probably has started going away and uh we will start looking at Myanmar and the Northeast possibly a little more

Critically a little more interestingly as to how it will impact our national security with that I would uh also like to acknowledge the idea of a Unity government in which uh which is a federal in uh in the in the nature and India playing some kind of a peace

Mission role out there uh maybe more in the form of negotiations offering negotiations before the Chinese step in because we must realize that China has a very deep eye as far as Myanmar is concerned and as far as its interest in keeping the Eastern front of ours you

Know boiling because that will distract us from our major national security issues which are in the North and the West uh so with that I would like to once again thank our speakers Ambassador goam madya General Kalita Le n for their insightful and Frank talk on the subject

I would also like to thank the deputy chief of Army staff for having spared his time and come in for the panel discussion including the dgb for sharing uh his thoughts on the fencing I would also like to thank uh aan fence the company which has today sponsored this

Event uh and made it a success I would also like to thank today uh all of you who have spared your time and uh been part of this particular discussion and have uh made this entire proceeding uh a thumping success I hope I’m claiming it rightly uh because at least I got that

Uh you know feeling that yes we have had a very good discussion some very interesting points have come up we will make a hot wash of this and uh share it with the Army Headquarters with the mod and the other agencies as also we’ll put

It up on our website so that people who have missed this particular opportunity they can have a look see at that of course we’ll keep certain issues which are of more sensitive nature not being put on the website that care will be taken as far as this particular uh event

Is concerned and lastly I must not forget to thank my staff uh whether it was colel pay colel amand and the entire you know research Scholars who have been able to make this event a success I’m talking in terms of goind who was the guy who was trying to flash all these

Things in front of you and Shrea who who was the master of ceremony for this event once again a big thank you to all of you and may I request all of our guests to give a standing ovation to the [Applause] panelists and the event is not over before we make the necessary

Presentations to our guests thank you sir may I now invite the DG Clause to kindly present motos to our panelists ambassador gam mukad leftenant General RP Kalita leftenant General PC [Applause] nard thank you sir ladies and gentlemen with this we now come to the end of the talk may I

Request everyone to kindly give a round of applause to our panelists we would like to thank our sponsors A1 Fence Products Company private limited for supporting us in this endeavor and also our audience for being with us today we would also be sharing a hot wash of the event on the Clause website

And we reassured that only unclassified material will be shared uh may I now request all the panelists to join us in the forer for a group photograph and the rest audience are all requested to join us for tea laid out in the adjacent Hall thank you and J Hind

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