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You are at:Home » Volatility Clusters – A Wealth of Common Sense
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Volatility Clusters – A Wealth of Common Sense

adminBy adminMarch 16, 2025No Comments4 Mins Read
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Posted March 16, 2025 by Ben Carlson

Coming into 2025 the S&P 500 had just two down years out of the past 15:

  • 2010 +14.8%
  • 2011 +2.1%
  • 2012 +15.9%
  • 2013 +32.2%
  • 2014 +13.5%
  • 2015 +1.4%
  • 2016 +11.8%
  • 2017 +21.6%
  • 2018 -4.2%
  • 2019 +31.2%
  • 2020 +18.0%
  • 2021 +28.5%
  • 2022 -18.0%
  • 2023 +26.1%
  • 2024 +24.9%

We were all probably a little spoiled. Regardless of the reason for the recent swoon, we were due.

By my count this is the 39th double-digit downturn since 1950:

That’s basically one correction every other year on average.

Although the stock market was on a tear coming into this year, we’ve already had two bear markets this decade.

I don’t know if this will turn into another bear market but I’m not surprised that these big moves are happening more often.

Information travels at the speed of light. There are more algorithms, more leverage, more hedge funds, more high-frequency traders and more retail investors using options and such.

These days, recoveries and downturns seem to be happening faster than ever, but it’s not out of the ordinary to experience clusters of volatility like this.

It would be rare if this correction turned into a bear market, but this has happened before. There just hasn’t been a decade since the 1960s with three bear markets.

Before that you’d have to go back to World War II when there were four bear markets in five years from 1937 to 1942. Depending on how you define a bear market1 there were also a handful of bears in the front half of the 1930s.

Markets are far different today than they were back then in countless ways but human nature remains the constant across all market cycles.

As long as people are involved in the stock market, there will be emotional responses to the upside and the downside.

Get used to it.

Further Reading:
Signs of a Top

1It took a very long time to recover from the Great Depression crash but there were plenty of booms and bust along the way.

This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

The Compound Media, Inc., an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here: https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers

Please see disclosures here.



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